A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY-29.2.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22214.10--High—22229.15—Low—21915.85--Close-21951.15 on 28.2.2024.

Support: 21926.76/21834.35/21813.05/21801.45/ 21763.95/21750.25/21731.40/21727.75/ 21593/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/ 21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 22079.67/ 22124.15/ 22126.80/    22249.40/22252.50/22297.50/22371/22453/22514/22590/22618/22782/22864/23082/23111/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and inched up little further and then steadily moved down and finally ended the day with a loss of 247.20 points.  It is needless to mention here that it has been exhibiting volatility for a long time now and having a see-saw movement quite often, which is a  concern and it is not a good sign for a steady market and may eventually drag it down sharply in coming days/weeks & months. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

Again today it closed well below the Inverse Head & shoulder pattern (bullish pattern) neckline which is placed at 22126.80, please note that it has been giving whip saw movement around this point in the last few days, which indicated potential weakness and today it plunged down sharply below this point, furthermore it slipped into short & deep short term correction mode for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 22116.47 & 22023.67(figure may change). Please note that if it does not bounce back above all these points in a shortest possible time and sustain on the closing basis then it may be heading for sharp fall in coming days. 

Moving down the important support points could be at 21945---21914-----21823---21801.45---21748---21731.40----21727.75----21711----21692----21683---21593---21500----21448.65---21370.12----21285.55----21137.20(figures may change), it may bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again, but sustained break below the range of 21801.45----21727.75 will trigger fresh fall and then break below each point will weaken it further and sustained break below 21137.20 may accelerate the fall.

Similarly moving up important resistance points could be at 22007.48---22023.67----22116.47---22126.80---22252.50---22297.50---22376---22457---22623---22787---22870---23117. Please note that sustained close above the range of 22023.67----22126.80 may put it back on the up move track.

It is important to mention here that one out of five important technical indicators is only  positive now and four most important indicator has turned negative today on the daily chart giving clear indication that it may continue to head down from here in coming days. One most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is also negative and pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months. Furthermore today it fell below some of its short term moving averages on the daily chart, made lower top & bottom on the line chart and the price action is also weak. Therefore all together things are very dicey and pointing that if it fails to stage a strong bounce back in a day or two and move above its critical range as mentioned above then the down move may continue. But please note that in worst case scenario as long as it holds 21671(figure may change) on the closing basis chances of up move will be alive. It is sell on the rise market now.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till it closes above 21126.80. However, aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 21800---21727 for some time with a stop loss of 22660. . Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair, but can be tried in strong support range or point for pullback gains. 

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it has slipped into correction mode , therefore short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22150--- 22175 with a stop loss of 22240 or sell below 21915 with a stop loss of 22030. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com