A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—13.2.2024

 

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—45664.30--High—45748.50--Low—44633.85---Close—44882.25 on 12.2.2024.

Support: 44710.55//44547.80/44429/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance:44949.90/45071.20/  45430.20/45655.50/46310.10/46369.50/46580.30/46892.35/46919.70/47010.80/47481.35/47588/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48305.40/48381.95 48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and went up little further and then started slipping down and fin ally ended the day with a whopping loss of 752.30 points. Please note that it has been exhibiting volatility for a long time in fact it is having  see-saw movement quite often , which is not a good sign for a steady and smooth movement and may eventually drag it down lower.

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down.  It is way below all the three critical points, it is well below all  the important correction threshold points for its recent months rise and most critical points  48231.30---48133.94---47999.87---47447.93---47387.89---47360.75---47095.12----46311----46270.95(figures may change), which is a hugely negative sign and indicates further fall may be  ahead. Please note that break below 44746.91(figure may change) will push it into deep medium term correction mode for its earlier rise. It is already into the long term correction mode now for its recent months rise, furthermore it has threatened the long term uptrend today as it is decisively below its long term moving average upper band of the range, which is placed at 45633(figure will change every day) for the day and its lower band of the range is placed at 44426(figure will change every day)for the day, break below this point will potentially threaten the long term uptrend which please note. It is important to mention here that its short and long pullback threshold points are at 45166.86 & 45421.96(figure may change) today it closed well below these points, which is a weak sign. Please note that it has to close above these points and sustain to keep the hope of meaningful up move alive, else down move will continue.  

It is important to mention here that four out of five important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and indicates that it may go down further in the coming days. Furthermore three most important indicators on the weekly & one on the monthly chart are also negative and it is into long term corrective mode. The chart setup is very weak, it has made lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart; it is below all of its short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, below few medium term moving averages on the daily chart and most importantly below few long term moving averages also. Please note that all together situation is very concerning and pointing that it may head down in coming days, provided it remains below 45421.96  & 45633(figure may change) on the closing basis. 

Moving down from here its important support points could be at 44807---44746.91---44607----44594----44506---44404----44312---44279.40---43830.25---43796.75---43600.35(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again, else may keep moving down. 

Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at44921----44949.50---45010.35---45421.96-----45626.51--- 45661-----45876-----45951.35---46036----46116----46311---46413---46486---46533----46825---47029----47391---47530----47644----47795---48203.45---48219.95---48231.30----48252.80---48292.25---48305.40---48381.95----48636.45(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these points also and may head down. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS ON A VERY WEAK TECHNICAL FOOTING  AND TO GIVE SOME HOPE OF A MEANINGFUL UP MOVE IT HAS TO CLOSE ABOVE 45421.96 & 45633(FIGURE MAY CHANGE) AND SUSTAIN, ELSE DOWN MOVE MAY CONTINUE AND SUSTAIN BREAK BELOW 44426( FIGURE MAY CHANGE) MAY ACCELELERATE THE FALL. 

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe traders long trade should be avoided till it closes above 45421.96 & 45633(figure may change). But aggressive traders can try long trade on sharp decline near or within the range of 44500---44430 with a stop loss of 44300.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is into long term uptrend but in the deep long corrective mode and long term uptrend is also threatened; therefore short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 45420---45620 with a stop loss of 45750 or sell below 44859 with a stop loss of 45070. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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