Open—14506.30--High—14572.90—Low—14414.25---Close-14507.30
on 26.3.2021.
Support:14467.75/14350.10/14264.40/14222.80/13953.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.
Resistance:14540/14653.35/14695.25/14753.55/14823.07/14862.10/14888.80/14977.20/14998.80/15069/15102/15165/15176.50/15273.15/15305/15325/15369/15431.75/15471/15615/15694/15800/16028/16323/16991.50/17470.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It staged a relief rally today after two days of severe fall
and closed with a gain of 182.39 points.
But it is not sufficient to take this up move forward because it is still below
some of its key points and if it does not bounce back above some of those
points it could start moving down again in coming days, which may please be
noted. Its most critical points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11
& 13981.75 and it is way above these points now and as long as it holds
these points on the closing basis uptrend will remain intact. Its other key points
are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is decisively below its first 3 key points of15131.35---14998.70 &14888.80 for the last few days now therefore it was already into deep
short term correction mode which could last for 4-7 days or more, but it
bounced back above its 4th
key point of 14336.34 today, which
is the threshold point for medium term correction mode this is somewhat a
positive indication and most importantly sustained break below 13562.48 on the closing basis can push
it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten the uptrend and
finally sustained break below 12430.50
on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please
be noted.
It is still into deep short term correction mode despite the
up move today. It is well below its short and medium term moving averages and
some long term technical parameters also, which indicates that further fall may
be ahead with intermittent short relief rallies in coming days. Furthermore it below
its pullback threshold point of 14540(figure
can change) now and to give reasonable pullback move it has to close above 14540 and sustain. Please note that it
has to cross lot of hurdles before it could start steady up move, but if it could
move above at least 14888.80 and
sustain on the closing basis then a steady up can be expected, else down move may
continue. Kindly note that chance of significant up move from here looks slim
at this point of time, however moving up it will face critical resistance at-14540---14653.35---14753.55---14888.80---14998.70---15131.32---15156.30---15176.50---15198.30.
Similarly going down it can find support
at-14467.75---14350---14264.10---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75---13953.75---13777.50---13596.75---13562.50.
It seems that it is the process of
changing the trajectory from uptrend to the downtrend provided it does not
bounce back sharply and move above some of its key points in next couple of
days, chances of sharp bounce back looks less likely at this point of time. Kindly,
note that the short term technical setup and parameters are very weak. Therefore
short term bias is negative as of now.
In view of the above observation, it is still into deep short term
correction mode therefore, long trade in general should be avoided till it
gives visible indication of correction completion. Long trade can only be
attempted once it closes above the pullback threshold point of 14540 else avoid. However aggressive
traders can try long trade if it move above 14540 intraday and sustain for some time or on decline and the
possible buy point for the day could be near 14467---14350 & 14264 but not below it. Please note that long trade in deep corrective
mode could be risky propositions specially buy on decline. Since it is in
corrective mode therefore adopt
sell on the rise strategy or sell on the price breakdown for taking advantage
of the down move till clarity on correction completion emerges. Short trade
should be tried but with extreme alertness and caution because the long term
technical setup still seems o.k. as of now.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down
before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap
up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing
volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t
have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)
1. Buy on decline near 14467 or near 14350 or near14264 but not
below it, with a stop loss 14400, 14315 & 14200 respectively. It is for
aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.
Or
Buy if it moves and maintain above 14540 for some time with a
stop loss of 14490. It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky
trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 14689---14735
with a stop loss of 14770. It could be a risky trade but worth trying in a
corrective market for intraday gain.
Or
Sell if it moves below 14467 and maintain for some time with a stop
loss of 14515. It could be a risky trade
but worth trying for intraday gain in corrective market.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note:
Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
