A TECHNICAL VIEW ON CNX-NIFTY FOR—19.3.2021

 

CNX-NIFTY

 Open—14855.50--High—14875.20—Low—14478.60---Close-14557.85on 18.3.2021.

Support:14467.75/14222.80/13953.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.            

Resistance:14653.35/14695.25/14753.55/14823.07/14862.10/14888.80/14977.20/14998.80/15069/15102/15165/15176.50/15273.15/15305/15325/15369/15431.75/15471/15615/15694/15800/16028/16323/16991.50/17470.                                                                                                                

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

The fall continues and today it closed with a loss of 163.45 points. In last five days including today it has fallen by more than 850 points on the intraday basis and more than 600 points on the closing basis which indicate that weakness is growing which could lead to further fall from here in coming days. Its most critical points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and it is way above these points now and as long as it holds these points on the closing basis uptrend will remain intact. Its other key points are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is decisively below its first 3 key points of15131.35---14998.70 &14888.80  therefore it is into  deep short term correction mode now and it can last for 4-7 days or more, sustained break below 14336.34 on the closing basis will push it into medium term correction mode and it can last even longer and most importantly sustained break below 13562.48 on the closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and will potentially threaten the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please be noted.

It is into deep short term correction mode and has been relentlessly falling for the last 5 days and in the process it has broken its short, medium and some long term moving averages and other technical parameters also, which indicates further fall may be ahead in coming days if it does not bounce back above its important points mentioned above shortly, chances of which looks slim at this point of time. However it managed to hold its recent major bottom of 14467.75 today and if it continues to hold this level then it could give a relief rally but a reasonable pullback up move can only be expected if it moves above 14695.25 (figure can change) and sustain on the closing basis, else it will continue the down move and sustained break below 14467.75 on the closing basis can drag it down to 13596.75 or even beyond, but with intermittent short relief rallies., which may please be noted. Going up its critical resistance points would be at 14695.25---14753.55---14888.80---14998.80--15131.35---15176.50---15239---15273.15---15369---15431.75---15471---15615---15694---15800---16028---16323. Similarly moving down its critical support points would be at 14529.15---14467.75---14428---14336.34---14300---14258---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75---13777.50---13596.75 levels.  Please note that the short term technical setup is very weak. The short term bias is down.

In view of the above observation, since it is corrective mode and exhibiting tremendous weakness therefore, long trade in general should be avoided till it gives visible indication of correction completion. However those traders who want to take advantage of a possible pullback move can try long trade if it holds its recent major bottom of 14467.75 but not below it. But it would be better and relatively safe to try long trade for pullback gains, once it closes above 14695.25 and sustain. Please note that long trade in deep corrective mode could be a risky proposition. It is in corrective mode therefore adopt sell on the rise strategy  or sell on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move till clarity on correction completion emerges. Short trade should be tried but with extreme alertness and caution because the long term technical setup still seems o.k. as of now.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)

1. Buy if it holds the level 14467.75 for some time with a stop loss of 14430. It is for aggressive traders and could be a highly risky trade.

2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 14695---14750 with a stop loss of 14800. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday correction.

Or

Sell if it moves and sustain below 14430 for some time with a stop loss of 14480. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday correction.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.

 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market.

 

Contact me for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

 

 Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.