CNX-NIFTY
Open-16993.60--High—17026.05--Low-16788.60---Close-16818.10
on 29.9.2022.
Support: 16793.85/16752.40/16701.95/16695/16627/16588/16565/16541/16490/16472/16410.20/16376.05/16275.50/16203.25/16172.60/16162.55/16133.57/15991/15986.42/15962.25/15914/15895/15775/15735.75/15671.45/15632.72/15578.55/15566/15513.45/15511.05/15450.90/15431.75/15367.50/15183.40.
Resistance: 16824.70/16888.70/
16891.70/16894/16995/17003/17140/17291/17298/17345.20/17354.05/17387.15/17429.70/17484.30/17490.70/17530.85/17639.50/
17759.30/17777.65/17797/17860/17920/17947.55/17992.70/18096.15/18112.60/18114.65/18217/18342.05/18350.95/18604.45—19329.
(Bold and underlined figures
are most important)
It opened on a
positive note and then slipped down and finally ended the day with a loss of 40.50 points. It is important to state
here that the gap it created on 26.9.2022
is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next one trading sessions which is technically
possible then it can come up to 17292,
but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling
the gap will recede for the time being, which please note. It is into medium term correction mode and has been falling for the
last seven days, so possibility of a
bounce back may be there and it can happen in next few days but it seems that it
would be of weak intensity, but whatever
up move it may witness now on would be a pullback move only. Please then note
that it may give a reasonable or slightly steady pullback rally only if it
moves above 17055 &17097(figure may change) and sustain on the closing
basis else down move will continue with short relief rallies.
It is looking terribly
weak on the technical chart as it is
below all its short term moving averages on the daily chart and some below
weekly & monthly chart also and
below some medium and long term moving averages also, it is well below its
major down trend line , it is making lower top & bottom on the line and bar
chart both, decisively below its rising trend line and most importantly it is decisively below
its most critical point of 17387.15
& 17354.05 all together these are
extremely weak indications which can surely drag it down further in coming days
and the process is on. It is important to mention here that its long term
moving averages are placed in the range of 17090—16774(figure
will change every day), which is a very strong support area but it is well
below the upper band of 17090 now
which is an alert sign for the long term uptrend and sustained and break below
the lower band of 16774 may put the
long term uptrend in potential danger which may please be noted, it closed
pretty near to the lower band of the average range which is a weak sign. Please
note that to get into the up grove again it has to maintain above the lower
band of the range i.e.above 16774 and
then move above its long term moving averages upper band i.e. above 17090 and sustain and then move above 17354.05 & 17387.15 and sustain on
the closing basis then there will be some hope for resuming the up move again
else down move is likely to continue with intermittent relief rallies. However
moving down it has good support in the range of 17000---16774 and it may
bounce back from this range for a while but it is very much likely to break
this range eventually this is what technical indicators suggest as of now. Please
note that sustained break below the range may accelerate the fall.
The long term technical
setup is severely threatened so be watchful, it is already into medium term
correction mode, furthermore all the four important technical indicators are
distinctly weak, which is highly concerning. Please note that if these
indicators do not improve fast it can drag it down and it can improve only if
it gives good and sustained up move for the next few day, but looking at last
few days price movement it seems less likely that it could stage a sharp up
move shortly, therefore further fall from here looks inevitable in coming days
with intermittent pullback up moves and it is already on the downslide now. It is important to mention here that if
price pattern do not improve and remains weak the indicators as of now suggest
that it could hit 16500 levels or may be much lower levels in coming days/weeks/months.
The undertone is highly bearish as of now.
In view of the above observation, it
is into medium term correction mode so it is already a sell on the rise market
now. Therefore it is suggested to adopt sell on the rise or sell on the price
breakdown strategy till a visible sign of correction completion emerges. Sell
on the rise near or within the range of 17060—17090
with a stop loss of 17160 or if
it moves below 16774 with a stop
loss of 16870. Please note that for
safe trader’s long trade can only be tried once it closes above 17387.15 and sustains or if it moves
and closes above 17090 and sustain then
for pullback gains else avoid. But aggressive traders can try long trade on
decline near --16774 but not below it
with a stop loss of 16700 for
pullback gains. Please note that in general long trade in a corrective market
for pullback gains could a risky affair because pullback rallies are
treacherous in nature and can end abruptly trapping the traders unaware but
long trade can be tried at the most critical points. It is into medium term
correction mode now and long term trend is also severely threatened. So watch
out.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
m for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.