Open—14570.90--High—14575.60—Low—14264.10---Close-14324.90on
25.3.2021.
Support:14222.80/13953.75/13777.50/13596.75/13399.30/13145.85/13131.45.
Resistance:14350.10/14467.75/14653.35/14695.25/14753.55/14823.07/14862.10/14888.80/14977.20/14998.80/15069/15102/15165/15176.50/15273.15/15305/15325/15369/15431.75/15471/15615/15694/15800/16028/16323/16991.50/17470.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
As expected the pullback rally got exhausted (see my post for 22.3.2021) at 14878.80 on 23.3.2021 and started down move again and it hit a low of 14264.10 today and closed with a loss
of 224.50 points. It is exhibiting
huge weakness therefore further fall may be ahead in coming day. Its most critical
points for the year 2021 are 14024.85---13996.11 & 13981.75 and it
is way above these points now and as long as it holds these points on the
closing basis uptrend will remain intact. Its other key points are at 15131.35---14998.70---14888.80---14336.34---13562.48---12430.50(except
for 12430.50 other figures can change). It is decisively below its first 3 key points of15131.35---14998.70 &14888.80 for few day now therefore it was already into deep
short term correction mode which could last for 4-7 days or more, it has broken its 4th key point of 14336.34
today therefore now it is into medium
term correction mode which could last even longer and most importantly
sustained break below 13562.48 on
the closing basis can push it into long term correction mode and will
potentially threaten the uptrend and finally sustained break below 12430.50 on the closing basis will
further dampen the uptrend for sure, which may please be noted.
It was already into deep short term correction mode and today
it has slipped into medium term correction mode which is bad sign. Furthermore
it has decisively broken its short and medium term moving averages and some
long term technical parameters also, which indicates that further fall is ahead
with intermittent short relief rallies in coming days. Please note that if it
sustains below 14336.34 on the
closing basis then the correction could deepen and it could be more painful also
pricewise and time wise both. It is important to mention here that now the
pullback rally threshold point is at 14540(it
can change), if it closes above this point and sustain then it could give a
reasonable pullback rally, else down move will continue with very short up move
below this point. Kindly note that chances of significant up move from here
looks slim at this point of time, however moving up it will face critical
resistance at-14350.10---14467.75---14540---14653.35---14753.55---14878.60---14986---15156.30---15198.30.
Similarly going down it can find support
at-14264.10---14222.80---14024.85---13996.11---13981.75---13953.75---13777.50---13596.75---13562.50.
It seems that it is the process of
changing the trajectory from uptrend to the downtrend provided it does not
bounce back sharply in next couple of days, chances of sharp bounce back looks
less likely at this point of time. Kindly, note that the short term
technical setup and parameters are tremendously weak. Therefore short term bias
is negative as of now.
In view of the above observation, it was in deep short term correction
mode and today it has gotten into medium term correction mode which is even
bigger bad sign therefore, long trade in general should be avoided till it
gives visible indication of correction completion. Long trade can only be
attempted once it closes above the pullback threshold point of 14540 else avoid. However aggressive
traders can try long trade on decline and the possible buy point for the day
could be near 14222---14136 &
14024.85 avoid buying below 14024.85
for sure because below this point it could go for an accelerated fall. Please note that long trade in deep corrective
mode could be a risky proposition. Since it is in corrective mode therefore adopt sell on the rise strategy
or sell on the price breakdown for taking advantage of the down move till
clarity on correction completion emerges. Short trade should be tried but with
extreme alertness and caution because the long term technical setup still seems
o.k. as of now.
NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down
before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap
up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing
volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t
have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.
TRADING STRATEGY(Suggested)
1. Buy on decline near 14222 or near 14136 or near14024.85 but
not below it with a stop loss 14190, 14110 & 13970 respectively. It is for
aggressive traders and could be a risky trade.
2. Sell on the rise near or within the range 14540---14575
with a stop loss of 14610. It could be a risky trade but worth trying in a corrective
market for intraday gain.
Or
Sell if it remains below 14350 for some time with a stop loss of 14380.
It could be a risky trade
but worth trying for intraday gain.
Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not
at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on
the above view.
Kindly note that make
your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE
WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note:
Price stated here are of spot market.
Contact me for
strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.
Thanks
Narendra
Kumar Surana
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Thank you for sharing your views.