A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—5.2.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-21812.75--High—22126.80—Low—21805.55--Close-21853.80 on 2.2.2024.

Support: 21834.35/21813.05/21801.45/21763.95/21750.25/21731.40/21727.75/21676.90/21658.75/21593/21500.35/21492.90/ 21448.65/21285.55/ 21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19839/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 21926.76/22124.15/22128.80/22220/22459/22478/22590/23082/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

it opened on a hugely positive note and steadily moved up and hit a new all-time high of 22126.80 but could not sustain at the upper level and slipped down but finally ended the day with a  gain of 156.35 points. Please note that it made a double top today (earlier top was 22124.15 and today’s top 22126.80) and slipped down, which is a weak sign, but the good thing is that it closed above its most critical points of 21727.75---21731.40 &21801.45 which is essential to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024, please note that if it sustains above these points then chances of continuation of the move looks bright, but looking at the today’s move holding these points seems slightly difficult. Break below these points may trigger fall and break below 21600(figure will change every day) may accelerate the fall, but as long as it holds its pullback threshold points of 21282 & 21370.12(figure may change) chances of up move will be alive, which may be kept in mind. Furthermore it is exhibiting huge volatility in fact having a see-saw movement quite often as it happened today also, which is not good for a steady and smooth movement and may eventually drag it down lower. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

The chart setup has improved but today’s move was disturbing. Furthermore it is into short corrective mode for its very recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 21893.25(figure may change) and moving down from here it may find possible support at 21834.45---21801.45---21748.77----21731.40----21727.75-----21632---21515.23---21370.12—21335.15---21282—21137.20(figures may change) it may bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again but sustained break below 21137.20 will trigger fresh fall. Similarly if it moves above then the target  or resistance points could be at 21893.25---21926.76---22124.15---22126.80---22220----22392.60, if it moves above 21926.76 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 22126.80 or may go beyond it also. 

It is very important to mention here that three out of five important technical indicators are still negative now on the daily chart and indicates that it could drag it down to lower levels or may have mixed and wild movements, in the coming days, furthermore one most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is also negative and it is into short term corrective mode for its recent rise. The overall technical setup is good now, but I once again reiterate that today’s movement was concerning and if it fails to holds its critical points of 21801.45---   21731.40 & 21727.75 then it may start to drift down again. However the hope of up move will be alive as long as it holds the range of 21370.12---21282 on the closing basis.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IF IT HOLDS ITS CRITICAL POINTS OF 21801.45--- 21731.40 & 21727.75 THEN THE UP CAN CONTINUE BUT BREAK BELOW THESE POINTS COULD BE AN ALAM BELL FOR GOING DOWN AND BREAK BELOW 21600 MAY ACCELERATE THE FALL. BUT THE HOPE OF CONTINUATION OF THE UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE TILL IT HOLDS 21370.12 &21282 ON THE CLOSING BASIS.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of  21801---21730 with a stop loss of 21670 or if it moves above 21894 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 21840.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but it is into short term corrective mode for is very recent rise, but pullback mode is also on, even then short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22080--- 22100 with a stop loss of 22160 or sell below 21670 with a stop loss of 21750. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com