A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—9.2.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22009.65--High—22011.05—Low—21665.30--Close-21717.95 on 8.2.2024.

Support:21676.90/21658.75/21593/21500.35/21492.90/ 21448.65/21285.55/ 21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19839/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 21727.75/21731.40/21750.25/21763.95/21801.45/ 21813.05/21834.35/21926.76/22124.15/22126.80/22220/22459/22478/22590/23082/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

it opened on a positive note but could not inch up further and traded in a range for a while then started slipping down and finally ended the with a loss of 212.55 points. It is exhibiting huge volatility in fact having a see-saw movement quite often and today it had happened again which is not a good sign for a steady and smooth movement and can eventually drag it down lower. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

Kindly note that to keep the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it has to sustain above its  most critical & important points of 21727.75---21731.40 &21801.45 on the closing basis. It closed below all the three points today which is concerning and if it fails to bounce back above these points in a shortest possible time and sustain on the closing basis then the fall may continue and sustained break below 21672(figure will change every day) may accelerate the fall. It is important to mention here that its short & long pullback threshold points are at 21774.21 & 21370.12(figure may change), it is below its short pullback threshold point but well above long threshold point, therefore as long as it holds 21370.12 levels on the closing basis chances of resuming the up move will  be alive, else it may drift down.

The chart setup has weakened a bit as it made lower top & bottom on the bar chart and broken recent bottom on the line chart, it slipped into short term corrective mode today for its very recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 21893.25(figure may change) moving down from here its important support points could be at 21632---21515.23---21370.12—21335.15---21137.20(figures may change) it may bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again but break below 21137.20 may trigger fresh fall, which please note. Similarly moving up from here its upside resistance or target point could be at   21727.75-----21731.40----21748.77----21801.45---21834.35---21893.25---21926.76----22124.15----22126.80---22220(figure may change) sustained close above 21727.75--21731.40 & 21801.45 may put it back on the steady up track again. 

It is important to mention here that with today’s move two out of five important technical indicators have turned negative on the daily chart and indicates that it may continue to go down further in the coming days. Furthermore one most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is negative, it fell below few of its short term moving average on the daily chart and the price action was also weak, all together situation looks concerning and further fall looks inevitable in coming days. However, if it bounce back above its critical points in a shortest possible time and sustain on the closing basis then it may resume the up move again, else down move will continue. I once again reiterate that the volatility will eventually take its toll sooner or later and it may sharply head down and today’s fall was just a teaser and a big fall may be ahead in coming days. So be alert and cautious in the long trade at this point of time. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT SLIPPED INTO CORRECTION AND CLOSED BELOW ITS CRITICAL POINTS OF 21926.76---21893.25---21801.45---21731.40 & 21727.75 TODAY WHICH IS A WEAK SIGN AND BREAK BELOW 21672 MAY ACCELERATE THE FALL. BUT THE HOPE OF CONTINUATION OF THE UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE TILL IT HOLDS 21370.12 ON THE CLOSING BASIS.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds the range of 21700---21680 with a stop loss of 21640 or if it moves above 21802 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 21710.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but it slipped into correction and pullback mode is also on, even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 21850--- 21875 with a stop loss of 21940 or sell below 21690 with a stop loss of 21750   It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com