A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—8.2.2024

 

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—45944.60--High—46062.85--Low—45620.50---Close—45818.50 on 7.2.2024.

Support: 45655.50/45430.20/45071.20/44710.55/44949.90/44547.80/44429/44279.40/44151.80/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance: 46310.10/46369.50/46580.30/46892.35/46919.70/47010.80/47481.35/47588/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48305.40/48381.95 48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with a small up gap and went up little further and then started slipping down and in the process filled the gap and late in the afternoon staged recovery and finally ended the day with a gain of 127.70 points. Please note that it is exhibiting huge volatility in fact it is having a see-saw movement quite often which is not a good sign for a steady and smooth movement and may eventually drag it down lower.

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45 and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down.  It is way below all the three critical points, it is well below all  the important correction threshold points for its recent months rise and most critical points  48231.30---48133.94---47999.87---47447.93---47387.89---47360.75---47095.12----46311----46270.95(figures may change), which is a hugely negative sign and indicates further fall may be  ahead. Please note that break below 44746.91(figure may change) will push it into deep medium term correction mode for its earlier rise. It is already in the long term correction mode now for its recent months rise, furthermore it is time and again testing its long term moving average upper band ,which is placed at 45609(figure will change every day) for the day, in fact it tested this level intraday today but managed to close above it, but this behavior is concerning and sustained break below it could threaten the long term uptrend and sustained  break below the lower band of the long term moving average which is placed at 44415(figure will change every day) for the day may jeopardize the uptrend, which please keep in mind. It is important to mention here that its short and long pullback threshold points are at 44937 & 45421.96(figure may change) and it is well above both the pullback threshold points, therefore as long as it hold these points on the closing basis the hope of continuation of the up move will be alive, else it may head down.

It is important to mention here that four out of five important technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart and indicates that it may continue the up move in the coming days. But three most important indicators on the weekly & one on the monthly chart are negative and it is into long term corrective mode. Furthermore the chart setup is still weak, it is still below few of its short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, below some medium term moving averages also and most importantly it is testing its long term moving average every now and then, and therefore all together it still indicates down move may happen. But as long as it holds its long term moving average upper band of 45609(figure will change every day) and pullback threshold point of 45421.96(figure may change) the hope of continuation of the up move will be alive. In view of the above observation long trade can be tried on decline till it holds these points on the closing basis. 

Moving down from here its important support points could be at 45759----45661----45505---45421.96----45370---45343.83---45251---45010.35---44949.50---44921----44746.91---44607----44506---44404----44312---44279.40---43830.25---43796.75---43600.35(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again, else may keep moving down. 

Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at 45910-----45951.35---46072----46150----46367---46533----46825---47029----47391---47530----47644----47795---48203.45---48219.95---48231.30----48252.80---48292.25---48305.40---48381.95----48636.45(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these points also and may head down. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- PLEASE NOTE THAT AS LONG AS IT HOLDS 45609(FIGURE WILL CHANGE EVERY DAY) &45421.96 ON THE CLOSING BASIS CHANCES OF UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE BUT BREAK BELOW THESE POINTS WILL TRIGGER FRESH FALL. 

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 45600---45527 with a stop loss of 45400 or long trade can be tried if it moves above 45927 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 45750.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is into long term uptrend but in the  deep long corrective mode but pullback up move is also on, but even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 46200---46260 with a stop loss of 46360. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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