A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—14.2.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-21664.30--High—21766.80—Low—21543.35--Close-21743.25 on 13.2.2024.

Support: 21731.40/21727.75/ 21593/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/ 21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance:  21750.25/21763.95/21801.45/ 21813.05/21834.35/21926.76/22053.30/22124.15/22126.80/22220/22393/22459/22514/22590/22618/22782/22864/23082/23111/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

it opened on a positive note and had both side moves during the day and finally ended the with a gain of 127.20 points. It has been exhibiting volatility for a long time in fact it is having a see-saw movement quite often which is not a good sign for a steady and smooth movement and can eventually drag it down lower. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

Kindly note that to keep the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it has to sustain above its  most critical & important points of 21727.75---21731.40 &21801.45 on the closing basis. It bounced back to close above two critical points today but it has to move above all the critical points and sustain on the closing basis to pick good up momentum, similarly break below these points will trigger fall again and break below the range of 21705---21666(figure will change every day) may accelerate fall, which may please be noted. It is important to mention here that its short & long pullback threshold points are at 21681.04 & 21370.12(figure may change) and it above both the points and as long as it holds these points on the closing basis chances of up move will be alive, else it may move down.

The chart setup is weak  as it made lower top & bottom on the bar & line chart, it is into short term corrective mode  for its very recent rise as it is way below its threshold point of 21893.25(figure may change) moving down from here its important support points could be at 21731.40---- 21727.75------21681.04---21632----21514---21448.65---21370.12—21335.15---21285.55----21137.20(figures may change) it may bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again but break below 21137.20 may trigger fresh fall, which please note. Similarly moving up from here its upside resistance or target point could be at   21748.77----21766.23---21801.45---21834.35---21893.25---21926.76----21989----22010.11---22053.30---22124.15----22126.80---22220(figure may change) sustained close above 21801.45---21893.25 may put it back on the steady up track again. 

It is important to mention here that four out of five important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and indicates that it may go down further in the coming days. Furthermore one most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is negative, it fell below few of its short term moving average on the daily chart and the price action is also weak, all together situation looks concerning and further fall is very much likely in the coming days. However, as long as it holds 21370.12(figure may change) chances of up move will always be alive. I once again reiterate that the volatility will eventually take its toll sooner or later and it may moderately or sharply head down in coming days. So be alert and cautious in the long trade at this point of time. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS INTO CORRECTION MODE AND TO GET BACK ON THE SMOOTH UP TRACK IT HAS TO MOVE ABOVE 21727.75 ---21731.40---21801.45---21893.25--21926.76AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS, ELSE DOWN MOVE WILL CONTINUE. BUT THE HOPE OF CONTINUATION OF THE UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE TILL IT HOLDS 21370.12 ON THE CLOSING BASIS.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried if it holds the range of 21730---21705 with a stop loss of 21640 or if it moves above 21783 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 21700.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair, but it is into correction and pullback mode is also on, even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 21900--- 21930 with a stop loss of 21980 or sell below 21640 with a stop loss of 21750   It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com