A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—14.2.2024

 

 

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 CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—45056.80--High—45750.40--Low—44819.55---Close—45502.40 on 13.2.2024.

Support: 45430.20/45118.05/45096.85/44949.90/44710.55//44547.80/44429/44279.40/44182.50/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance:45655.50/46181.20/46310.10/46369.50/46507.55/46892.35/46919.70/47010.80/47481.35/47588/48203.45/48219.95/48292.25/48305.40/48381.95 48636.45/48722/48925/49024/49567.60/49696/49857/50324/50633.60/50850.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 620.15 points. Please note that it has been exhibiting volatility for a long time in fact it is having see-saw movement quite often, which is a weak sign for a steady and smooth movement and may eventually drag it down lower.

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45and to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2024 it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis else it may head down.  It is way below all the three critical points, it is well below all  the important correction threshold points for its recent months rise and most critical points  48231.30---48133.94---47999.87---47447.93---47387.89---47360.75---47095.12----46311----46270.95(figures may change), which is a hugely negative sign and indicates further fall may be  ahead. Please note that break below 44746.91(figure may change) will push it into deep medium term correction mode for its earlier rise. It is already into the long term correction mode now for its recent months rise, furthermore it has threatened the long term uptrend also as it is below its long term moving average upper band of the range, which is placed at 45639(figure will change every day) for the day and its lower band of the range is placed at 44430(figure will change every day)for the day, break below this point will potentially threaten the long term uptrend which please note. It is important to mention here that its short and long pullback threshold points are at 45166.86 & 45421.96(figure may change) and the good thing is that today it closed above both the points, which is a positive sign. Please note that to keep the hope of meaningful up move or continuation of major up move it has to sustain above these points on the closing basis, else it will drift down again.  

It is important to mention here that three out of five important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart and giving mixed signals some indicators indicates that it may go down further and some indicator pointing that it may have short lived up move also in the coming days. Furthermore three most important indicators on the weekly & one on the monthly chart are also negative and it is into long term corrective mode. The chart setup is very weak, it has made lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart; it is below few short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, below few medium term moving averages on the daily chart and most importantly below few long term moving averages also. Please note that all together situation is very concerning and pointing that it may head down in coming days. However if it remains above 45166.86 & 45421.96 on the closing basis chances of up move will be alive and if it moves above 45639(figure will change every day) and sustain on the closing basis then it may some strength to move up faster. 

Moving down from here its important support points could be at 45497---45421.96---45370----45166.86----45010----44921.67---44746.91---44548----44429---44279.40----44182.50---43830.25---43796.75---43600.35(figures may change), please note that it can bounce back from any of these points and may resume the up move again, else may keep moving down. 

Similarly moving up it may face strong resistance at 45661----45763----45951----46036---46360---46441----46441----46533---46892----47029---47644----47795----48203.45---48219.95---48231.30----48252.80---48292.25---48305.40---48381.95----48636.45(figure may change) and it can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or it may exhaust the up move at any of these points also and may head down. 

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- IT IS STILL INTO DEEP CORRECTIVE MODE BUT CHANCES OF UP MOVE WILL BE ALIVE IF IT HOLDS 45421.96 & 45166.86(FIGURE MAY CHANGE) ON THE CLOSING. IT IS STILL A SELL ON THE RISE MARKET BUT LONG TRADE CAN BE TRIED AT CRITICAL SUPPORT POINTS WITH STRICT STOP LOSSES. 

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline if it holds 45421.96 with a stop loss of 45250 or can be tried if it moves above 45665 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 45350.  Please note that long trade in corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried at extreme critical support points with strict stop loss for pullback gains.

2. It is into long term uptrend but in the deep long corrective mode and long term uptrend is also threatened; therefore short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 46200---46300 with a stop loss of 46450 or sell below 45250 with a stop loss of 45480. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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