A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—21.2.2024

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-22099.20--High—22215.60—Low—22045.85--Close-22196.95 on 20.2.2024.

Support: 22126.80/22124.15/22053.30/21926.76/21834.35/21813.05/21801.45/  21763.95/21750.25/21731.40/21727.75/ 21593/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/ 21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20291.55/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance:  22220/22371/22453/22514/22590/22618/22782/22864/23082/23111/23124/23587.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note and had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain/loss of 74.70 points. The gap it created on 16.2.2024 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 2-3 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 21953.85, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chance of filling the gap will recede for a while. Furthermore it has been rising for the 6^th straight day in a row making it little vulnerable for correction any day, so be alert and cautious. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

Kindly note that on 19.2.2024 it gave an upside breakout from the Inverse Head & shoulder pattern neckline placed at 22126.80 during the day but could not close above it, but on 20.2.2024 it closed well above the neckline and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the up move could continue and the maximum upside target for this pattern could be 23120 but sustained break below the neckline could be concerning and may negate the pattern.

The chart setup is good now and if it manages to hold the key points of 22126.80----22053.85 & 21961 on the closing basis then it is likely to continue the move up. Moving up from here its target or resistance points could be at 22220---22371---22453---22514. Similarly moving down the other support points could be at 22126.80----22124.1522053.85---22007.48---21961.10---21873---21792---21748---21731.40----21727.75----21692----21662---21593---21500----21448.65---21370.12----21285.55----21137.20, sustained break below 22126.80 could be highly concerning and sustained break below the range of 22053.85 & 21961.10 may will push it into short & deep short term correction mode for its very recent rise and then break below each point will weaken it further and sustained break below 21137.20 may accelerate the fall.

It is important to mention here that four out of five important technical indicators are positive and one indicator is negative on the daily chart giving mixed signals that it may swing either way as of now in the coming days. Furthermore one most important indicator on the weekly & monthly chart is also negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months. But please note that the other important parameters such as moving average placement and price action is good, therefore if these parameter remains good and it holds its key points as mentioned above then the up move will continue and last but not the least in worst case scenario as long as it holds 21671(figure may change) on the closing basis chances of up move will always be alive.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 22126---22053 with a stop loss of 22000 or if it moves above 22220 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 22145.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; however, even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22330--- 22370 with a stop loss of 22455.  It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com