A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—1.11.2023

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---43356.85---High—43356.85---Low---42797.15---Close—42845.95 on 31.10.2023.

Support: 42720/42582.20/42108/42105.40/41962/41829.60/41626/41569/41060/40819/39424.85/39300.

Resistance:42986.45/43038.25/43078.90/ 43345.95/43446/43519.55/43600.35/43706.15/43830.75/43862/43950/44151.80/ 44182.50/44207.25/44254/44279.40/44390/44459.25/44498.60/44547.80/44539/44566.30/44795/44949.60/45118.05/45238.80/45655.50 45782.75/45816/45893.80/46310.40/46369.50/.          

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with an up gap and open was the high also for the day and then  it immediately started moving down and finally ended the day near the low of the day with a loss of 193.20 points. The overall technical setup is exhibiting tremendous weakness on the daily and weekly chart and the weakness has trickled down to monthly chart also, therefore eventually it is likely to move down in coming days. It is into deep short & medium term correction mode for its earlier rise and went into short correction mode for its very recent rise for the last three days as it closed below its threshold point of 43062(figure may change), and most importantly long term uptrend is severely threatened, therefore further fall looks certain as of now. It may have feeble up move if it sustains above 42720(figure may change), but to gain meaningful foothold and possible continuation of the up move it has to move above these points of 42951---42986.45---43038.25---43112---43345.95(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, else down move will continue with in between relief rally, it did move above this range today but could not sustain. Please note that to have a smooth & steady up movement it has to move above 43940 & 44500figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 44711—44151.80---44187---45517----45656(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, chances of happening this looks very bleak at this point of time. Please note that all the five important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart, four out of five indicators on the weekly chart are negative and most importantly weakness has trickled to monthly chart also in few indicators , all together it is highly concerning and indicates that it may witness deep fall in coming weeks/months. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down sharply and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023, but for the last three days  price action has been good but today’s closing was dicey and the price action possibly could turn weak  on 1.11.2023, so watch out. Please note that for a smooth up movement steady positive price action is needed, else up move can abruptly end. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and see how it behaves in coming days. It is into deep short & medium term correction mode now and long term uptrend is potentially threatened. So the further downside looks inevitable.

Kindly note that moving down from here it’s possible support points would be at 42720----42583---42559.50---42473---42401---42386---42279---42252---42100---41984---41907---41829.60---41576---40948----40444---40164---39370(figure may change) it may bounce back from any of these points, but break below 42720 may possibly end the relief rally which is on, break below 42280 will trigger fall again, break below 42100 may accelerate the fall and finally sustained break below 41829.60 may trigger fresh fall and can drag it down much lower.

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 42951---42986.45---43038.25---43112---43345.95---43734---44096---44151.80---44237---44741---45118---45318---45363---45517---45702---45782.75---45816---45885---46310.40---46369.50(some figure may change). Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- Please note that as of now weekly indicators are pointing towards big fall in coming weeks and it could head down to 41000 or much lower levels. It is sell on the rise market now, therefore trying long trade for pullback gains could be a risky affair, but can be tried by aggressive traders at critical support points, which please note. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 43345 and sustains.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or it closes above 43112 at least. However aggressive traders can try long trade if it holds 42800 for some time with a stop loss of 42700. It could be a highly risky trade mind you.  

 2. It is already into deep short and medium term correction mode and long term uptrend is also severely threatened, therefore sell on the rise or sell on the price breakdown strategy should be adopted now. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 43280---43320 with a stop loss of 43400 or sell below 42700 with a stop loss of 42850.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.