A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—17.10.2023

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---44204.75---High—44356.95---Low---44044.40---Close—44225.90 on 16.10.2023.

Support:44207.25/44182.50/44151.80/43950/ 43862/43830.75/43706.15/43600.35/43519.55/43446/43345.95/43078.90/43038.25/42986.45/42582.20/41962

Resistance: 44254/44279.40/44459.25/44498.60/44547.80/44539/44566.30/44795/44949.60/45118.05/45238.80/45655.50 45782.75/45816/45893.80/46310.40/46369.50/46761/47063/47123/47284/47427/47755/48081/48198/48446/49139.             

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note and had both side movement during the day but finally ended the day with a loss of 62.05 points.  It is into deep short & medium term correction mode for earlier rise and it went into short correction mode today for its very recent rice as it is below its threshold point of  44495(figure may change). It is still below some of its short & medium term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, furthermore it closed well below its meaningful pullback threshold point of 44390(figure may change),therefore chances of continuation of up move had dampened, all together these factors

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are very

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 concerning and indicates further down move may be ahead. However if it manages to hold the range of 44254---44167 &44151.80 on the closing basis then the chances of up move will still be alive, else it may resume down move again. But to get into strong up momentum track it has to close above 44630---44950---45816 & 45820(figures may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that sustained close above 44630 may help it for a steady up move.  The short term technical setup still looks weak, but on the daily chart one out of five important indicators is positive now therefore giving some ray of hope that it may resume the up move again, but few indicators on the weekly chart are also showing weakness as of now. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023, and it was today also, which is a negative sign. Please note that for a steady up movement continuous positive price action is needed, else it may continue with the down move. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action, so watch out. Its long term uptrend is intact as of now. The undertone is weak now.  

Kindly note that moving down from here the key support points could be 44167---44151.80---43600.35---43446---43345.90---43038.25---42986.45---42921(figure may change) sustained break below 44254---44167 & 44151.80 may dampen the possibility of the up move to a great extent and may threaten the long term uptrend as well. Break below 43600.35 will be an alert point for further fall, sustained break below 43345.90 on the closing basis will trigger fresh fall and it could be trend threatening also and finally sustained break below 43038.25---42986.45 & 42921 may end the possibility of a steady up move for a while and it may head for deep down move, which please note. 

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 44254---44390---44539---44658---44757---44985---45054---45118---45311---45350---45671---45725---45782.75---45816---45885---46310.40---46369.50(some figure may change). Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- technically it is on a weak footing in comparison with CNX-Nifty at this point of time, so it may underperform.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till visible sign of correction completion emerges or it closes above 44390 at least. However aggressive traders can try long trade if it holds the range of 44254---44151.80 for some time with a stop loss of 44000 or can buy on decline near or within the range of 43600---43345 with a stop loss of 43200.

 2. It is into the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair, but it is into deep short and medium correction mode now, therefore short trade can be attempted but with extreme caution and care on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 44490---44550 with a stop loss of 44650 or sell below 44040 with a stop loss of 44300.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.