A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—26.10.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-19286.45---High—19347.30--Low-19074.15--Close-19122.15 on 25.10.2023.

Support: 18887.60/18646.70/18555.40/18464.55/18350.95/18131.70/18105.30/.

Resistance: 19223.65/19253.60/19296.45/19300/19303.60/19333.60/19361.75/19405/ 19421/19458.55/ 19465/19467.50/19480.50/19482.75/19492.10/19512.35/19544/ 19563.10/19584.45/19615.95/19622.40/19638.30/19645.50/19657.50/19766.65/ 19795.60/ 19838/19867.55/19887.40/19901/19986.73/ 19991.85/20168/20184/20201/20222.45.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a flat to positive note and moved up little further but could not sustain and started moving down and finally ended the day with a loss of 159.60 points. It has been moving down for the last five days so a short relief rally can happen any day, but the overall setup is exhibiting tremendous weakness, therefore eventually it is likely to move down.    Today it closed below its critical and trend threatening point of 19223.60 and if it sustains below it then it could be heading for a big fall in coming days, which please note.  It is into short & medium term correction mode for its earlier rise and into short correction mode also for its very recent rise. It is below all its short & some medium term moving averages on the daily chart, below all short term moving averages on the weekly chart also, broken bottom on the line & bar chart, it is well below its meaningful pullback threshold point of 19345.15(figure may change) all these factor together are concerning and indicates further fall ahead. Please note that to give some hope for an up move it has to close above 19223.60 & 19345.15 and sustains, else down move will continue, but to have a smooth & steady up movement it has to move above 19620& 19740(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 19850--19991.85 & 19993(this figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, chances of which looks bleak at this point of time. The short and medium term technical setup has further weakened and on the daily chart and all the five important indicators are negative now and indicates further fall looks imminent, furthermore three out of five indicators on the weekly chart are also negative as of now, which indicates that it may witness deep fall in coming weeks/months. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down sharply and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023 and it is continuing to be weak, which is a bad sign. Please note that for a steady up movement continuous positive price action is needed, else the down move may continue with in between short relief rally. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action, so watch out. Its long term uptrend is intact as of now, but deep short and medium term correction mode is on and if it does not stage a sharp recovery and moves above its key points of 19223.60 & 19345.15 in a day or two further fall looks inevitable.

Kindly note that moving down from here its strong support points would be 19103----18887.60---18526(figure may change) it may bounce back from these points, but sustained break below 19103 will weaken it further, sustained break below 18887.60 will accelerate the fall and finally break below 18526 will severely threaten the long term uptrend and it may accelerate the fall, which may please be noted.

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 19223.60---19345.15---19421---19480.50---19486---19512.35---19517---19622.40---19626---19635.30---19638.30---19698---19740---19811---19838---19854---19986.73---19991.85---19995----20030---20201---20222.45(figure may change), it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also. So be watchful.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - It had down move for the last five days and the price action has also been weak, so if it does not bounce back above 19223.60 & 19345.15(figure may change) in a day or two and sustain on the closing basis then it may witness further fall. Please note that as of now weekly indicators are pointing towards big fall in coming weeks and it could head down to 18655 or lower levels. It is sell on the rise market now, therefore trying long trade for pullback gains could be a risky affair, but can be tried by aggressive traders at critical support points, which please note. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 19223.60 and sustains.  

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or it closes above 19345.15 at least. However aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 19135 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 19070 for possible relief rally but it could be a risky trade mind you.

2. It is already into deep short and medium term correction mode and long term uptrend is also threatened, therefore sell on the rise or sell on the price breakdown strategy should be adopted now. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19250---19300with a stop loss of 19360 or sell if it moves below 19070 with a stop loss of 19150.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

 for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 Email--- suranank@gmail.com