A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—18.10.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-19843.20---High—19849.75--Low-19775.65--Close-19811.50 on 17.10.2023.

Support: 19795.60/19766.65/ 19657.50/19645.50/19638.30/19622.40/19615.95/19584.45/19563.10/19544// 19492.10/19482.75/19467.50/19465/19458.55/ 19421/19405/19361.75/19333.60/ 19303.60/19300/19296.45/19253.60/19223.65/18887.60/18646.70/18555.40/18464.55

Resistance: 19838/19867.55/19887.40/19901/19986.73/ 19991.85/20168/20184/20201/20222.45.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with an up gap but could not move up further and finally ended the day with a gain of 79.75 points. It is still into short term correction mode for its earlier rise and will get into short correction again for its immediate rise if it closes below 19723. It is above all its moving averages and already making higher top & bottom on the line and bar chart, which is a positive sign, furthermore it is well above its meaningful pullback threshold point of 19544(figure may change) and finally if it manages to hold the range of 19710---19680(figure will change every day) on the closing basis then the up move can smoothly extend, else it may correct again. Please note that to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 19991.85 & 20045(this figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. The short term technical setup has improved, but on the daily chart one out five important indicator is negative now posing some concern, however chances of up move extension still looks O.K., but few indicators on the weekly chart is negative as of now, which is a weak indication. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023, the price action was positive today which is a good sign. Please note that for a steady up movement continuous positive price action is needed, else it may resume the down move again. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action, so watch out. Its long term uptrend is intact as of now.

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 19838---19883---19986.73---19991.85---20013----20045---20201---20222.45(figure may change), it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also. So be watchful. Please note that sustained close above 19838 can take it to 19991.85 levels and sustained close above 20045 will possibly ensure that it could retest its all-time high of 20222.45 or may go beyond it also.  

Kindly note that moving down from here its strong support points would be 19731.75---19710---19680---19638.30---19635.30---19622.40---19544---19512.35---19480.50---19421(figure may change) sustained break below 19731.75 will be a weak sign, break below the range of 19710—19680 on closing basis will make it weaker, break below 19638.30---19635.30& 19622.40 will be a warning signal, break below 19544 may end the possibility of continuation of the pullback up move, break below 19480.50 may accelerate the fall, break below 19421 will push it into deep medium term corrective mode and it may slide down further and then the next strong support range would be between 19300—19255---19234---19223.60. It is suggested to avoid long trade below the range of 19710—19680.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - the technical setup has improved and it is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart, above all moving averages, therefore likely to move up further from here, so buy on decline strategy can be adopted now till it closes below 19680.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 19710---19680 with a stop loss of 19610 or if it moves above 19828 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 19770.  

2. It is into the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair, but it is in correction mode and pullback mode is also on , even then short trade can be attempted but with extreme caution and care on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19900---19930 with a stop loss of 19980.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

 for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 Email--- suranank@gmail.com