A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—23.10.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-19542.15---High—19593.80--Low-19518.70--Close-19542.65 on 20.10.2023.

Support: 19512.35/19492.10/19482.75/19480.50/19467.50/19465/19458.55/ 19421/19405/19361.75/19333.60/ 19303.60/19300/19296.45/19253.60/19223.65/18887.60/18646.70/18555.40/18464.55

Resistance: 19544/ 19563.10/19584.45/19615.95/19622.40/19638.30/19645.50/19657.50/19766.65/ 19795.60/ 19838/19867.55/19887.40/19901/19986.73/ 19991.85/20168/20184/20201/20222.45.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a flat to negative note and moved in a range during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 82.05 points. It is still into short term correction mode for its earlier rise and into short correction mode for its very recent rise as it well below its threshold point of 19728(figure may change).It is below its short & some medium term moving averages on the daily chart, below some short term moving averages on the weekly chart also, broken recent bottom on the line & bar chart and most importantly it closed just below its meaningful pullback threshold point of 19544(figure may change) today all these factor together are concerning and indicates further fall ahead. Please note that to keep the hope of up move alive it has to close above 19544 and sustains, but to have a smooth & steady up movement it has to move above 19700 & 19750(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 19850--19991.85 & 20045(this figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. The short term technical setup has weakened and on the daily chart four out five important indicators are negative now posing great concern and indicates further fall ahead, furthermore three out of five indicators on the weekly chart are also negative as of now, which indicates that it may witness deep fall in coming weeks/months. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down sharply and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023 and it was weak today also, which is a bad sign. Please note that for a steady up movement continuous positive price action is needed, else the down move may continue with in between short relief rally. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action, so watch out. Its long term uptrend is intact as of now but short term correction is on now and further down side looks imminent.

Kindly note that moving down from here its strong support points would be 19512.35---19480.50---19421(figure may change) sustained break below 19512.35 & 19480.50 may accelerate the fall, break below 19421 will push it into deep medium term corrective mode and it may slide down further and then the next strong support range would be between 19300—19255---19234---19223.60. It is important to mention here that sustained break below 19223.60 on the closing basis will trigger fresh fall and it may witness an accelerated down move and most importantly it could be trend threatening also, which may please be noted.

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 19544---19622.40---19635.30---19638.30---19700---19750---19838---19883---19986.73---19991.85---20013----20045---20201---20222.45(figure may change), it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also. So be watchful. Please note that sustained close above 19544 will keep the hope alive that it could move up, sustained close above 19700 & 19750 may help it to have smooth up move, sustained close above 19850 can take it to 19991.85 levels and sustained close above 20045 will possibly ensure that it could retest its all-time high of 20222.45 or may go beyond it also.  

IMPORTANT NOTE: - It had a down move for the last three days and the price action has also been weak, so if it does not bounce back above 19544--- 19700 & 19750 in a day or two and sustain then it can slip down further. Please note that as of now weekly indicators are pointing towards big fall in coming weeks. It is sell on the rise market now, therefore trying long trade for pullback gains could be a risky affair, but long trade can be tried at critical support points, which please note.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or it closes above 19700 at least. However aggressive traders can try long trade if it holds 19512.35 with a stop loss of 19470 or on the sharp decline near or within the range of 19333---19223with a stop loss of 19150. It could be risky trade but worth trying.

2. It is into the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair, but it is in correction mode now, therefore short trade can be attempted but with extreme caution and care on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19620---19650 with a stop loss of 19700 or sell below 19512 with a stop loss of 19570.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

 for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 Email--- suranank@gmail.com