A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—23.10.2023

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---43584.25---High—43877.50---Low---43567.45---Close—43723.05 on 20.10.2023.

Support: 43706.15/43600.35/43519.55/43446/43345.95/43078.90/43038.25/42986.45/42582.20/41962.

Resistance:43830.75/43862/43950/44151.80/ 44182.50/44207.25/44254/44279.40/44390/44459.25/44498.60/44547.80/44539/44566.30/44795/44949.60/45118.05/45238.80/45655.50 45782.75/45816/45893.80/46310.40/46369.50/46761/47063/47123/47284/47427/47755/48081/48198/48446/49139.             

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note but since it had good support range of 43600--43345 it bounced back but finally ended the day with a loss of 31.45 points. It is exhibiting huge weakness. It is into deep short & medium term correction mode for earlier rise and also into short correction mode for its very recent rice. It is below all its short term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, below medium term moving averages on the daily and some on the weekly chart also and most importantly below some long term moving averages also on the daily chart, furthermore it is well below its meaningful pullback threshold point of 44222(figure may change) and also decisively below its key and critical range of 44200 &44151.80, please note that if it does not bounce back above the range of 44151.80--44200---44222(figure may change) in a shortest possible time say in 1-2 trading sessions then the fall may deepen.

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 Please note that sustained close above 44330 & 44630 may help it for a steady and smooth up move.  But to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 44711---44890---45816 & 45820(figures may change) and sustain on the closing basis. The short term technical setup is weak and on the daily chart four out of five important indicators are negative now therefore chances of moving down from here looks bright but one indicator is still giving some ray of hope for a possible feeble up move but the things are weak now, furthermore four out of five indicators on the weekly chart are also negative as of now, which indicates that it may witness deep fall in coming weeks/months. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023 and it was weak today also, which is a bad sign. Please note that for a steady up movement continuous positive price action is needed, else the down move may continue with in between short relief rally. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action, so watch out. It is into deep short & medium term correction mode now and long term uptrend is also threatened. So be watchful.

Kindly note that moving down from here the key support points could be 43600.35---43558.10---43446---43345.90---43038.25---42986.45---42952(figure may change) sustained break below 43600.35 & 43558.10 will be an alert point for further fall, sustained break below 43345.90 on the closing basis will trigger fresh fall and it could be trend threatening also and finally sustained break below 43038.25---42986.45 & 42952 may end the possibility of a steady up move for a while and it may head for deep down move, which please note. 

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 43796.75---43830.75---44151.80---44195---44222---44390---44539---44658---44694---44757---44985---45054---45118---45311---45350---45671---45725---45782.75---45816---45885---46310.40---46369.50(some figure may change). Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- technically it is on a very weak footing in comparison with CNX-Nifty at this point of time, so it is under performing and may keep on doing so. It is important to mention here that the range of 43600---43345 is tremendously strong support range and it may not break this range so easily and may stage strong bounce back from this range as it has been doing it for the last two days. But if it keeps on hovering around this range then eventually it may break this range and the weekly indicators are pointing towards that, which please note. So be alert and watchful.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or it closes above 44222 at least. However aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 43831 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 43700 or on decline near or within the range of 43600---43345 with a stop loss of 43100. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.   

 2. It is into the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a risky affair, but it is into deep short and medium correction mode now and long term uptrend is also threatened, therefore short trade can be attempted but with some caution and care on the reasonable rise or on the price breakdown for intraday corrective gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 44070---44150 with a stop loss of 44230.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

m for strategic guidance to enter and exit trade.

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.