A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—30.10.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-18928.75---High—19076.15--Low-18926.65--Close-19047.25 on 27.10.2023.

Support: 18887.60/18646.70/18604.45/18555.40/18464.55/18350.95/18131.70/18114.65/18105.30/18042/17992.20/17959/17824/17774.25.

Resistance: 19077/19165/19223.65/19253.60/19296.45/19300/19303.60/19333.60/19361.75/19405/ 19421/19458.55/ 19465/19467.50/19480.50/19482.75/19492.10/19512.35/19544/ 19563.10/19584.45/19615.95/19622.40/19638.30/19645.50/19657.50/19766.65/ 19795.60/ 19838/19867.55/19887.40/19901/19986.73/ 19991.85/20168/20184/20201/20222.45.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a positive note and steadily moved up and finally ended the day with a gain of 190 points. It was in oversold territory and had six days of strait fall, therefore as expected it staged a recovery today, it was a relief rally only and may not last because the overall technical setup is exhibiting tremendous weakness on the daily and weekly chart, and therefore eventually it is likely to move down further in coming days. It is into deep short & medium term correction mode for its earlier rise and into short correction mode also for its very recent rise, therefore further fall looks certain as of now.  The good point was that it closed above its critical point of 18887.60 today and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then there is a hope that it could still move up. It is important to mention here that if it closes above 19077(figure can change) and sustain then it can have a feeble up move, if it close above 19165(figure can change) which is a meaningful pullback threshold point then the up move can extend further, but to get a strong foothold for the continuation of the up move it has to close above 19223.65 and sustain, else down move will continue with in between relief rally. But to have a smooth & steady up movement it has to move above 19560& 19680figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 19850—19946&19991.85(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, chances of which looks bleak at this point of time. Please note that all the five important technical indicators are negative now and indicates further fall looks imminent, furthermore four out of five indicators on the weekly chart are also negative as of now, which also  confirms that it may witness deep fall in coming weeks/months. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down sharply and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023, but today it had positive price action, which is a good sign. Please note that for a steady up movement continuous positive price action is needed, else the down move may continue with in between short relief rally. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and see how it behaves. Its long term uptrend is intact as of now, but deep short and medium term correction mode is on and if it does not stage a sharp recovery and moves above its key points as mentioned above in a shortest possible time  then further fall looks inevitable.

Kindly note that moving down from here its strong support points would be 19020---18887.60---18837.85---18604.45---18534---18350.95---18131.70 & 18105.30(figure may change) it may bounce back from any of these points, but break below 19020 may end the relief rally which happened today, break below 18887.60 is a severe alert point to get out of the long trade, sustained break below 18534 will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained break below 18131.70 & 18105.30  may accelerate the fall, which may please be noted.

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 19077---19165---19223.60---19367---19421---19463---19480.50---19530---19611---19647---19694---19850---19896---19946(figure may change), it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also. So be watchful.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - Please note that as of now weekly indicators are pointing towards big fall in coming weeks and it could head down to 18000 or much lower levels in coming weeks provided it moves below 18887.60 and sustains. It is sell on the rise market now, therefore trying long trade for pullback gains could be a risky affair, but can be tried by aggressive traders at critical support points, which please note. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 19223.60 and sustains, but aggressive traders can try long trade if it closes above 18887.60 and sustains.  

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or it closes above 19223.60 at least and sustains. However aggressive traders can try long trade if it moves above 19083 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 19000 for a possible relief rally but it could be a risky trade mind you.

2. It is already into deep short and medium term correction mode and long term uptrend is also threatened, therefore sell on the rise or sell on the price breakdown strategy should be adopted now. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19165—19200 with a stop loss of 19250 or sell if it moves below 19000 with a stop loss of 19090.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 Email--- suranank@gmail.com