A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—2.11.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-19064.05---High—19096.05--Low-18973.70--Close-18989.15 on 1.11.2023.

Support: 18887.60/18646.70/18604.45/18555.40/18464.55/18350.95/18131.70/18114.65/18105.30/18042/17992.20/17959/17824/17774.25.

Resistance: 19077/19165/19223.65/19253.60/19296.45/19300/19303.60/19333.60/19361.75/19405/ 19421/19458.55/ 19465/19467.50/19480.50/19482.75/19492.10/19512.35/19544/ 19563.10/19584.45/19615.95/19622.40/19638.30/19645.50/19657.50/19766.65/ 19795.60/ 19838/19867.55/19887.40/19901/19986.73/ 19991.85/20168/20184/20201/20222.45.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened on a negative note and slightly inched up further but could not sustain and started moving down and finally ended the day with a loss of 90.45 points. The overall technical setup is exhibiting tremendous weakness on the daily and weekly chart; therefore it is likely to move down further in coming days. It is already into deep short & medium term correction mode for its earlier rise and went into short correction mode for its very recent rise also as it is below its threshold point of 19140(figure may change), therefore further fall looks certain as of now.  The good point is that it is still above its critical point of 18887.60 and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then there is a hope that it could still move up, but to gain meaningful foothold and possible continuation of the up move it has to move above these points 19077---19140---19155---19165----19223.65---19233.70(figure can change) and sustain on the closing basis, else down move will continue with in between relief rally. Please note that to have a smooth & steady up movement it has to move above 19520& 19660figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 19850—19946&19991.85(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis, chances of happening this looks tremendously bleak at this point of time. Please note that all the five important technical indicators  on the daily chart, four out of five indicators on the weekly chart are negative and most importantly weakness has trickled down to monthly chart also in few indicators , therefore all together it is highly concerning and indicates that it may witness deep fall in coming weeks/months. Please note that weak indicators with weak price action are a deadly combination and it can pull it down sharply and the price action has been weak since 18.9.2023 and after staying positive for the last three days as expected it turned negative today as it closed below the low of the previous day, which is a weak sign. Please note that for a smooth up movement steady positive price action is needed, else the up move can abruptly end and this is what has been happening. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and see how it behaves in coming days. Its long term uptrend is intact as of now, but deep short and medium term correction mode is on and if it does not stage a sharp recovery and moves above its key points as mentioned above in a shortest possible time then further fall looks inevitable.

Kindly note that moving down from here its strong support points would be 18887.60---18837.85---18604.45---18551---18350.95---18131.70----18105.30(figure may change) it may bounce back from any of these points, but sustained break below 18887.60 & 18837.85 is a severe alert point to get out of the long trade, sustained break below 18551 will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained break below 18131.70 & 18105.30  may accelerate the fall, which may please be noted.

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 19077---19140---19151---19165---19223.60---19367---19421---19463---19480.50---19530---19611---19647---19694---19850---19896---19946(figure may change), it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also. So be watchful.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - Please note that as of now weekly indicators are pointing towards big fall in coming weeks and it could head down to 18000 or much lower levels in coming weeks provided it moves below 18887.60 & 18837.85 and sustains. It is sell on the rise market now, therefore trying long trade for pullback gains could be a risky affair, but can be tried by aggressive traders at critical support points, which please note. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 19223.60 and sustains, but aggressive traders can try long trade if it sustains above 18887.60 with proper stop loss. 

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till correction completion sign emerges or it closes above 19223.60 at least and sustains. However, aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near or within the range of 18887---18860 with a stop loss of 18810.

2. It is already into deep short and medium term correction mode and long term uptrend is also threatened, therefore sell on the rise or sell on the price breakdown strategy should be adopted now. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19080—19110 with a stop loss of 19150 or sell if it moves below 18965 with a stop loss of 19030.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 Email--- suranank@gmail.com