A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—7.11.2023

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---43627.75---High—43648.70---Low---43415.20---Close—43619.40 on 6.11.2023.

Support: 43600.35/43519.55/43446/43416.10/43345.95/43078.90/43038.25/ 42986.45/42589.65/42582.20/42108/42105.40/41962/41829.60/41626/41569/41060/40819/39424.85/39300.

Resistance:43706.15/43830.75/43862/43950/44151.80/ 44182.50/44207.25/44254/44279.40/44390/44459.25/44498.60/44547.80/44539/44566.30/44795/44949.60/45118.05/45238.80/45655.50 45782.75/45816/45893.80/46310.40/46369.50/.          

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with an up gap and moved up little further and finally ended the day with a gain of 301.15 points. It is still into deep short & medium term correction mode for its earlier rise, long term uptrend is also threatened and break below 43398.76 & 43284(figure may change) will push it into short & deep short correction mode for its very recent rise. But the important and good thing is that the short term technical setup has reasonably improved, it has moved above its short term moving averages on the daily chart, it is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart and most importantly it is well above its critical range of 43345.95---43112----43038.25----42986.45---42973(figures may change) and as long as it holds this range the up move is likely to continue with intermittent correction. Please note that to have a smooth & steady up movement it has to move above 43750—43900---44151.80 & 44180 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 44710.55----45517(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that four out of five important technical indicators on the daily chart has turned positive raising great hope that up move can extend further, but all the five indicators on the weekly chart are negative and most importantly weakness has trickled down to monthly chart also in few indicators , therefore all together it is still highly concerning and indicates that after the extended up move it may still witness deep fall in coming days/ weeks/months. Furthermore the price action has also not been consistently positive, but it has been positive for the last three days, which is good sign. Please note that for a smooth up movement steady positive price action is needed, else the up move can abruptly end. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and see how it behaves in coming days. It is into deep short & medium term correction mode now and long term uptrend is also threatened as of now. But as long as it holds the above mentioned range up move can extend with intermittent corrections. The short term bias is positive as of now. 

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 43734---44096---44151.80---44190---44237---44711---44741---45118---45363----45469---45517---45782.75---45816---45885---46310.40---46369.50(some figure may change). Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also. Please note that if it moves above 44190 and sustain then it could retest its recent top of 44710.55 or can go beyond it.

Kindly note that moving down from here it’s possible support points would be at 43416.10----43345.95---43284---43112---43038.25---42986.45---42973--42879---42720---42589.65---42559.50---42520---42473---42401---42386---42279---42252---42100---41984---41907---41829.60---41576---40948----40444---40164---39370(figure may change) it may bounce back from any of these points, but sustained break below the range of 43345.95---42973 may trigger big fall.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- The on-going up move is likely to extend and can move up to 44400 levels or more if it holds the range of 43345.95---42973, specially the  43345.95 levels in particular, therefore long trade can be tried on decline till it holds this range, so it is buying on decline market as of now till it behaves otherwise. But please note that weekly indicators are still pointing towards big fall in coming weeks and it could head down to 41000 or much lower levels in coming weeks provided it moves below 43038---42973 and sustains.  

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried if it moves above 43650 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 43480 or can buy on decline near 43345.95 with a stop loss of 43200. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on sharp decline near or within the range of 43050-----42980 with a stop loss of 42800. It could be a risky trade.

2. It is already into deep short and medium term correction mode and long term uptrend is also threatened, but the meaningful pullback up move is also on, even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise for pullback gains but with extreme caution. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 43900---43975 with a stop loss of 44100.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.