A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—9.11.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-19449.60---High—19464.40--Low-19401.50--Close-19443.50 on 8.11.2023.

Support: 19421/19423.85/19405/ 19361.75/19333.60/19303.60/19300/19296.45/19223.65/19204.85/19172.79/19165/19077/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85/18646.70/18604.45/18555.40/18464.55/18350.95/18131.70/18114.65/18105.30/18042/17992.20/17959/17824/17774.25.

Resistance: 19458.55/ 19465/19467.50/19480.50/19482.75/19492.10/19512.35/19544/ 19563.10/19584.45/19615.95/19622.40/19638.30/19645.50/19657.50/19766.65/ 19795.60/ 19838/19867.55/19887.40/19901/19986.73/ 19991.85/20168/20184/20201/20222.45.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with an up gap and moved little higher and then moved in a short range and finally ended the day with a gain of 36.80 points. It is important to mention here that the gap it created few days ago still exist, therefore if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 1-2 trading sessions which is technically possible then it can come down to 19276 & 19175 levels but if it fails to fill it in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede. It is still into deep short & medium term correction mode for its earlier rise and break below 19348.59 & 19316.53(figure may change) will push it into short & deep short correction mode for its very recent rise. But the important and good thing is that the short term technical setup has reasonably improved, it has moved above its short term moving averages on the daily chart, it is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart, it is above its recent critical range of 19394---19285(figure will change every day) and most importantly it is well above its most critical range of 19223.60---19185—19165---19112(figures may change) and as long as it holds this range the up move is likely to continue with intermittent correction. Please note that to have a smooth & steady up movement it has to move above 19530& 19650 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 19849.75—19946&19991.85(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that four out  the five important technical indicators  on the daily chart are positive now  raising good hope that up move can extend further provided it holds the key support range as mentioned above, but all the five indicators on the weekly chart are negative and most importantly weakness has trickled down to monthly chart also in few indicators , therefore all together it is still highly concerning and indicates that after possible extended up move it may still witness deep fall in coming days/ weeks/months as of now. Furthermore the price action has also not been consistently positive in the recent past, which is a concern, but it has been positive for the last five days, which is good sign. Please note that for a smooth up movement steady positive price action is needed, else the up move can abruptly end. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and see how it behaves in coming days. Its long term uptrend is intact as of now, but deep short and medium term correction mode is on and pullback mode is also on. The short term bias is positive as of now. 

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 19463---19530---19611---19647---19694---19850---19896---19946--19991.85 (figure may change), it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also, so be watchful. Please note that if it moves above 19647 and sustain then it could retest its recent top of 19849.75 or can go beyond it.

Kindly note that moving down from here its strong support points would be 19421---19394---19348.59---19316.53---19285---19223.60---19185---19165---191112--19034----18973.70---18887.60---18837.85---18604.45---18587---18350.95---18131.70----18105.30(figure may change) it may bounce back from any of these points, break below the range of 19394---19285 will be an alert point  for long traders,  sustained break below the range of 19223.60---19185---19165---19112 will trigger fresh fall,  sustained break below 18973.70 will weaken it further, sustained break below 18887.60 & 18837.85 will be an extreme alert point for further fall, sustained break below 18587 will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained break below 18131.70 & 18105.30  may accelerate the fall, which may please be noted.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - The on-going up move is likely to extend if it holds the range of 19394---19285 point and finally holds the range of 19223.60---19104, specially the 19223.60 levels in particular. Therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds the mentioned range. But please note that weekly indicators are still pointing towards big fall in coming weeks and it could head down to 18000 or much lower levels in coming weeks provided it moves below 18887.60 & 18837.85 and sustains.  

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe traders long trade can be tried if it moves above 19465 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 19380 and avoid buy on decline for the day. However, aggressive traders can also try long trade on sharp decline near or within the range of 19223---- 19165 with a stop loss of 19100. It could be a risky trade mind you.

2. Its long term uptrend is intact but it is still into deep short and medium term correction mode but meaningful pullback up move is also on, even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise for pullback gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19530—19550 with a stop loss of 19600 or can sell below 19380 with a stop loss of 19450 for intraday corrective gain. It could be a risky trade.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 Email--- suranank@gmail.com