A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—16.11.2023

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open---44398.45---High—44408.55---Low---44164.55---Close—44201.70 on 15.11.2023.

Support:44151.80/ 43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43078.90/43038.25/ 42986.45/42582.20/42105.40/41962/41840.15/41829.60/41729/41569/40819.15/39600.25/39419.50..

Resistance:44279.40/44498.60/44547.80/44710.55/44779.65/44949.90/45118.05/45238.80/45655.50/ 45782.75/45816/45893.80/45905.85/46310.40/46369.50/.    

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with an up gap thereafter could not move much higher and moved in range during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 310.45 points. It is still into deep short & medium term correction mode for its earlier rise and break below 44190 & 43865.60(figure may change) will push it into short & deep short correction mode for its very recent rise. But the important and good thing is that the short term technical setup has  improved and it has started showing strength, the meaningful pullback up move is on, it has moved above its short term moving averages on the daily chart, it is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart, it is well above its recent down trend line ,which is a very positive sign, it is above its recent critical range of 44190---44151.80---43876---43650(figures will change every day) and most importantly it is well above its critical range of 43345.95---43112----43038.25----43025---42986.45(figures may change) therefore as long as it holds the mentioned ranges the up move is likely to continue with intermittent correction but break below the range of 44190---44151.80---43876---43650 could be highly concerning and can drag it down. Please note that to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 44520---44710.55----44741---45363---45517(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis.  Please note that all the five important technical indicators on the daily chart are positive now, therefore the on-going up move can extend further provided it holds the key support range as mentioned above, but all the five indicators on the weekly chart are negative and most importantly weakness has trickled down to monthly chart also in few indicators , therefore all together it is still highly concerning and indicates that after the extended up move it may still witness deep fall in coming days/ weeks/months because it is the up move within the downtrend as of now. Furthermore the price action has also not been consistently positive in the recent but today it was positive, so watch out. Please note that for a smooth up movement steady positive price action is needed, else the up move can abruptly end. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and see how it behaves in coming days. It is into deep short & medium term correction mode now.  The short term bias is positive as of now. 

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 44237---44711---44741---45118---45363----45469---45517---45782.75---45816---45885---46310.40---46369.50(some figure may change). Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also. Please note that if it moves above 45517 and sustain then it could retest its all-time high of 46369.50 or can go beyond it also.

Kindly note that moving down from here it’s possible support points would be at 44190---44151.80---43865---43734----43504.95---43345.95---43284---43112---43038.25---42986.45---42879---42720---42589.65---42559.50---42520---42473---42401---42386---42279---42252---42100---41984---41907---41829.60---41576---40948----40444---40164---39370(figure may change) it may bounce back from any of these points,  if it holds 44190 on the closing basis then it could retest its important top of 44710.55 or may go beyond it also, break below  44190 & 44151.80 will push it into very short correction mode for its recent rise, break below 43865.60 will push it into deep short term correction mode for its recent rise, break below the range of 43669---43400 will be a very weak sign and sustained break below the range of 43345.95---42987 may trigger big fall and will severely threaten the long term uptrend too.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- As envisaged and expected it hit 44400 levels today, the on-going up move is can still extend further to 44600 levels or more if it holds the range of 44190---44151.80---43876--43650 and finally the range of 43345.95---42987, especially the 43345.95 levels in particular. Therefore it is buying on decline market now till it holds the mentioned range. But please note that weekly indicators are still pointing towards big fall in coming weeks and it could head down to 41000 or much lower levels in coming weeks provided it moves below 43345.95 and sustains. Please note that the on-going up move is just a pullback rally in corrective mode and it may get into strong up momentum track only if it moves above 44710.55(figure may change) and sustains on the closing basis, else it may exhaust also at any point of time. So be watchful.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. Long trade can be tried if it if it holds the range of 44190---44151.80 for some time with a stop loss of 44000 or can buy on decline near 43890 with a stop loss of 43650. But aggressive traders can also try long trade on sharp decline near 43345.95 with a stop loss of 43200. Please note that long trade below 43891 could be a risky affair for the day.  

2. It is already into deep short and medium term correction mode and long term uptrend is also threatened, but the meaningful pullback up move is also on, even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise for pullback gains but with extreme caution. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 44500---44600 with a stop loss of 44700 for intraday corrective gains. It could be a risky trade

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up  then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.