A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—16.11.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-19651.40---High—19693.20--Low-19579.65--Close-19675.45 on 15.11.2023.

Support: 19645.50/19635.30/19584.45/19523.40/19492.10/19480/19333.60/19329.10/19296.45/19253.60/19223.65/19204.85/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85/18646.70/18604.45/18555.40/18464.55/18350.95/18131.70/18114.65/18108.30/18042/17992.20/17959/17824/17774.25/17761.85/17553.95.

Resistance: 19849.75/19867.55/19991.85/20222.45.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with an up gap and went up further and finally ended the day with a gain of 231.90 points. It is still into deep short term correction mode for its earlier rise and break below 19607.36 & 19491.34(figure may change) will push it into short and deep short correction mode for its very recent rise. But the important and good thing is that the short term technical setup has  improved and it is showing good strength now, it is above its short and medium term moving averages on the daily weekly chart,  it is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart, it is well above its recent critical range of 19650---19550----19362(figure will change every day) and most importantly it is well above its most critical range of 19223.60---19215—19165---19138(figures may change) therefore as long as it holds the above mentioned range the up move is likely to continue with intermittent correction, but break below the range of 19650---19550---19362 could be highly concerning. Please note that to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 19849.75—19946&19991.85(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that all  the five important technical indicators  on the daily chart are positive now therefore the on-going up move can extend further provided it holds the key support range as mentioned above, furthermore four out of five indicators on the weekly chart are negative now and most importantly weakness has trickled down to monthly chart also in few indicators , therefore weekly & monthly indicators are still highly concerning and indicates that after possible extended up move it may still witness deep fall in coming days/ weeks/months as of now. Furthermore the price action has also not been consistently positive but  today it was extremely good, which is positive sign. Please note that for a smooth up movement steady positive price action is needed, else the up move can abruptly end. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and see how it behaves in coming days. Its long term uptrend is intact as of now, but deep short term correction mode is on and the meaningful pullback mode is also on. The short term bias is positive as of now. 

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 19694---19849.75---19896---19946--19991.85 (figure may change), it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also, so be watchful. Please note that sustained close above 19849.75 will put it in the strong up momentum, else it may start to drift down,  if it moves above 19946 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 20222.45 or can go beyond it.

Kindly note that moving down from here its strong support points would be -19647---19607---19523----19491---19367----19329---19223.60---19165---19138--19077----18973.70---18887.60---18837.85---18604.45---18615---18350.95---18131.70----18105.30(figure may change) it may bounce back from any of these points, if it holds 19647 on the closing basis then it could retest its important top of 19849.75 or may go beyond it also, break below  19607 will push it into very short correction mode for its recent rise, break below 19523 &19491 will push it into deep short term correction mode for its recent rise, break below 19329 may trigger fall  sustained break below the range of 19223.60---19165---19138 will trigger fresh fall,  sustained break below 18973.70 will weaken it further, sustained break below 18887.60 & 18837.85 will be an extreme alert point for further fall, sustained break below 18615 will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained break below 18131.70 & 18105.30  may accelerate the fall, which may please be noted.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - The on-going up move is likely to extend to 19850 if it holds the range of 19650---19550----19362. Therefore it is buying on decline market now till it holds the mentioned range. But please note that weekly indicators are still pointing towards big fall in coming weeks and it could head down to 18000 or much lower levels in coming weeks provided it moves below 19223.65 and sustains. Please note that the on-going up move is just a pullback rally in corrective mode as of now and it may get into strong up momentum track only if it moves above 19849.75(figure may change) and sustains on the closing basis, else it may exhaust also at any point of time. So be watchful.

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe traders long trade can be tried if it moves above 19702 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 19640 and avoid buy on decline for the day. However, aggressive traders can also try long trade on decline near or within the range of 19600----19550 with a stop loss of 19500 or near or within the range of 19223----19165 with a stop loss of 19120. Please note that long trade below 19579 could be a risky affair for the day.

2. Its long term uptrend is intact but it is still into deep short term correction mode but meaningful pullback up move is also on, even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise for pullback gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19810—19850 with a stop loss of 19900 for intraday corrective gains.  

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 Email--- suranank@gmail.com