A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY—3.11.2023

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-19120---High—19175.25--Low-19064.15--Close-19133.25 on 2.11.2023.

Support: 19077/18887.60/18646.70/18604.45/18555.40/18464.55/18350.95/18131.70/18114.65/18105.30/18042/17992.20/17959/17824/17774.25.

Resistance: 19077/19140/19165/19223.65/19253.60/19296.45/19300/19303.60/19333.60/19361.75/19405/ 19421/19458.55/ 19465/19467.50/19480.50/19482.75/19492.10/19512.35/19544/ 19563.10/19584.45/19615.95/19622.40/19638.30/19645.50/19657.50/19766.65/ 19795.60/ 19838/19867.55/19887.40/19901/19986.73/ 19991.85/20168/20184/20201/20222.45.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with an up gap and moved up further and finally ended the day with a gain of 144.10 points. The overall technical setup is still exhibiting weakness on the daily and weekly chart despite today’s rise; therefore it is likely to move down further in coming days. It is already into deep short & medium term correction mode for its earlier rise and went into short correction mode for its very recent rise also. But the good point is that it is still above its critical point of 18887.60 and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then there is a hope that it could still move up and most importantly after quite some time it has made higher bottom on the line & bar chart, which firms up the hope to some extent that this up move can extend further, but to gain meaningful foothold and possible continuation of the up move it has to move above these points 19140---19155---19165----19223.65---19233.70(figure can change) and sustain on the closing basis, else down move will continue with in between relief rally and break below 18973.70 may trigger fall again. Please note that to have a smooth & steady up movement it has to move above 19530& 19650figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis and to get into the strong up momentum track it has to close above 19850—19946&19991.85(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that one out of five important technical indicators  on the daily chart has turned positive today raising some hope that up move can extend, but four out of five indicators on the weekly chart are negative and most importantly weakness has trickled down to monthly chart also in few indicators , therefore all together it is still highly concerning and indicates that after possible extended up move it may witness deep fall in coming days/ weeks/months. Furthermore the price action has also not been consistently positive, which is also a big concern, but today it was positive. Please note that for a smooth up movement steady positive price action is needed, else the up move can abruptly end. It is therefore suggested to keep an eye on the price action and see how it behaves in coming days. Its long term uptrend is intact as of now, but deep short and medium term correction mode is on and if it does not stage a sharp recovery and moves above its key points as mentioned above in a shortest possible time then further fall looks inevitable.

Kindly note that moving down from here its strong support points would be 19077---18973.70---18887.60---18837.85---18604.45---18557---18350.95---18131.70----18105.30(figure may change) it may bounce back from any of these points, but sustained break below 18973.70 will trigger fall again 18887.60 & 18837.85 will be an extreme alert point for further fall, sustained break below 18557 will potentially threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained break below 18131.70 & 18105.30  may accelerate the fall, which may please be noted.

Moving up from here it may face resistance at 19140---19160---19165---19223.60---19367---19421---19463---19480.50---19530---19611---19647---19694---19850---19896---19946(figure may change), it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or rally may exhaust also. So be watchful.

IMPORTANT NOTE: - In light of above observation it may have an extended up move if it holds 18973.70 levels, therefore long trade can be tried on decline till it holds this point, so it is buying on decline now till it behaves otherwise. But please note that weekly indicators are still pointing towards big fall in coming weeks and it could head down to 18000 or much lower levels in coming weeks provided it moves below 18887.60 & 18837.85 and sustains.   

TRADING TIPS:--

1. For safe traders long trade can be tried if it moves above 19141 with a stop loss of 19060 and avoid buy on decline for the day. However, aggressive traders can also try long trade on decline near 18973 with a stop loss of 18920. It could be a risky trade but worth trying.

2. It is already into deep short and medium term correction mode and long term uptrend is also threatened but short pullback up move is on today, even then short trade can be attempted on reasonable rise for pullback gains. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 19260—19275 with a stop loss of 19320.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favourable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

 Email--- suranank@gmail.com