A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-14.5.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—24864.05—High—24973.80---Low---24547.50---Close---24578.35 on 13.5.2025.

Support:24537.60/24498.20/24472.80/24354.55/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:24589.15/24694.35/24753.15/24792.30/24854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

After yesterdays huge run-up, today it opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 346.35 points.  Please note that the gap it created on 12.5.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 3—4 days, which is technically possible the it can come down to 24164, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for a while, but it will certainly fill the gap one day for sure. It is important to mention here that it has other recent unfilled gaps (gap points are 22923, 22468 & 22254) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, so, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The overall technical setup is strong for the continuation of the up-move. But it has decisively broken its make or break bottom of 24753.15 again and slipped into correction mode for its very recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 24728.82(figure may change) both are weak sign and if it sustains below it then further fall looks certain in coming times. Moving down the immediate broad support points could be at 24577----24455---24412.20---24334.25---24311.90—24171---24143(figures may change), it may bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below 24334.25---24311.90 may dampen the chance of an up-move in the month of May-2025 and finally break & sustained close below 24171---24143 may drag it down further. Moving down further it will find its most important & critical support in the range of  23893.70----23869.65—23807.30 , it is a very strong bounce back support range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up-move will be good, but break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall and then comes its most critical  support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for a good up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis. The overall trend is up as of now.

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 24728.82----24753.15----24934---25207---25287----25371---25465---25996(some figures may change daily). It can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up- move again or rally may fizzle out also, but if it moves above 24728.82 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of corrective mode, if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get back on the strong up-momentum track and likely to continue the up-move for sure and finally if it moves above 25371 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It crossed its previous top on the line & bar chart; it is above all its short, medium and long term moving average on the daily, weekly & on the monthly chart, which is a positive sign for moving up. Furthermore most of the important indicators are positive now and in the buy mode such as MACD/PS/ ADX&ST, but RSI showing negative divergence and EV in sell mode.  So, in totality it is giving mixed signal now for moving up. But earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and overbought zone is still a concern, so it may correct at times and it is into correction mode, so it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart important indicators such as MACD/ ADX/ PS &EV is in the buy mode, RSI has positive divergence, but it is in the deep overbought zone, so it can correct at times, but looks good for the up-move. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be  on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is buying on decline market now till it holds 24457.65 and finally the range of 24334.25---24311.90 on the closing basis. But short trade can also be tried on the rise and near the critical resistance points or range with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains. But safe trades should only try long trade once it closes above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis.

STRENGTH:-

1. Most of the technical indicators are positive, and MACD, ADX, PS & ST in buy mode.

2. It is above its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 23502 for the month of May-2025, it is a very good sign.

3. It is above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will start to drift down.

4. It is above its most critical First & second make or break bottom of 23893.70 & 24753.15, sustained close above it will enhance the chances of extending the up-move further.

5. It is way above its major long term rising trend line on the daily chart which is placed at 23430(figure will change every day) for the day.

6. It is above its very short, short &deep correction threshold points of 24497.02---24412.20 & 23917.61(figure may change).

7 It is way above its top long-term moving averages which is placed at 24173 (figure will change every day) for the day, close below this point is a very weak sign.

8. It is  above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 24442----24405----24379----24331---24136---24119(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help it to extend the up-move further.

9. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Few technical indicators are negative and EV in sell mode, negative divergence in RSI and in the overbought zone so, it may correct at times.

3. It is into short correction mode as it closed below its threshold points of 24728.82(figure may change).

4. It is fell below its most critical second make or break bottom of 24753.15, sustained close below it will enhance the chances of  a good down move..

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 24458 but not below it with a stop loss of 24390 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24755---24800 with a stop loss of 25860 or can sell if it moves below 24520 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24600 . It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com