A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-12.5.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—23935.75—High—24164.25---Low---23935.75---Close---24008.75 on 9.5.2025.

Support:23938.85/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24198.75/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24589.15/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 265.80 points. It is important to mention here that it has other recent unfilled gaps (gap points are 22923, 22468 & 22254) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, so, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup still looks good for the continuation of the up-move. But it is into short correction mode now for its recent rise and below other critical points also, which is a weak sign, therefore as of now further fall is very much likely in the coming times. Moving down further the next support point could be 23917.61(figure may change), this is a deep correction threshold point for its recent rise, break & sustained below it will push it into deep correction mode and then moving down it will find its most important & critical support in the range of  23893.70----23869.65—23807.30 , it is a very strong bounce back support range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up-move will be good, but break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall and then comes its most critical  support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for a good up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis. It is a strong bounce back range. But break & sustained close below these points may dampen the hope of a continued up-move and finally it may find last critical support in the range 23604---23502---23484---23410---23358(some figures will change daily), it can bounce back from this range, but break & sustained close below this range may end the up-move for a while or may be for good for some time and it may witness an accelerated fall and to top it all the long term uptrend would be in jeopardy then. 

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 24174----24226---24235---24311.90---24334.25---24412.20---24497.02----24545---24578----24753.15---24934----24858----25207---25287----25371---25465---25996(some figures may change daily). It can correct at any of these points then may resume the up- move or rally may fizzle out also, but if it moves above the range of 24172----24226---24235 it may get a foothold to move up further, if it moves above 24311.90 & 24334.25  and sustain on the closing basis then it may extend the up-move in the month of May-2025, if it moves above 24412.20 &24497.02 and sustain on the closing basis then, it will get out of corrective mode and may resume the up-move, but to get back into strong up-momentum track  it has to move above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis and finally if it moves above 25371 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also.

IMPORTANT NOTE: SUSTAINED CLOSE BELOW 24172 WILL DAMPEN THE CHANCES OF RESUMING THE UP MOVE. 

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

After a long time it has made lower top & bottom on the line chart, furthermore after a long time it slipped below few short term moving average on the daily chart, which is a weak sign, but it is above all short term moving average on the weekly & above almost all on monthly chart, it is above all medium term moving averages on the daily & monthly chart ,but below few on the weekly chart and most importantly it fell below few long term moving averages today, which is concerning for the continuation of the up-move. Furthermore most of the important indicators have turned negative now and in the mode MACD, PS&EV, So, in totality it is giving mixed signal now but with slight tilt towards weakness, furthermore earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and overbought zone is still a concern, so it may correct at times and it is into short corrective mode now, therefore further fall looks inevitable in coming days, so, it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart important indicators such as MACD/ ADX/ PS &EV is in the buy mode, RSI has positive divergence, but it is in the deep overbought zone, so it can correct at times, but looks good for the up-move. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be  on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is sell on the rise market now till it closes above the range of 24235---24226----24174 and sustain on the closing basis or it gives a visible indication of correction completion. But long trade can also be tried near critical support points or range with strict stop loss, for intraday gains.

STRENGTH:-

1. Only one technical indicator is positive and that is not significant.

2. It is above its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 23502 for the month of May-2025, it is a very good sign.

3. It is above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will start to drift down.

4. It is above its most critical or second make or break bottom of 23893.70, sustained close above it will enhance the chances of extending the up-move.

5. It is way above its major long term rising trend line on the daily chart which is placed at 23405(figure will change every day) for the day.

6. It is above its deep correction threshold points of 23917.61(figure may change).

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Most of the technical indicators have turned negative and are in sell mode such as MACD/PS/EV, so, it may correct further.

3. It is still way below its first make or break bottom of 24753.15, if it moves above it and sustain on the closing basis then it may get back on the strong up-momentum track.

4. It is into very short & short correction mode now as it is below its threshold points of 24497.02 & 24412.20   (figures may change), if it sustains below it on the closing basis then it may move down.

5. It is almost above all(except for few) its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 24293----24292----24205----24183-23981---23908(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help it to extend up-move.

6 It is below its top long-term moving averages which is placed at 24174 (figure will change every day) for the day, close below this point is a very weak sign.

7. The price action was negative today.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 23893.70----23869.65—23807.30 but not below it with a stop loss of 23725 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair, so be vigilant and cautious.

 2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24150---24200 with a stop loss of 24265 or can sell if it moves below 23917 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24020 respectively. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com