A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—9.5.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—54801.75---High—54937.25---Low—54108---Close—54365.65 on 8.5.2025.       

Support:54176.45/53888.30/53792.85/53531.30/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/55957.75/56098.70/56159/56307/56721/56767.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 245.25 points. It is also important to mention here that it has other recent unfilled gaps (gap points are 51361, 51244 & 50496) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, so, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The overall technical setup is still looks o.k. for the continuation of the up-move. But it is important to mention here that in view of the recent vertical rise, previous unfilled gaps, negative divergence and the deep overbought zone it seems that the correction it did so far is not enough and the price-wise correction is still not complete, therefore fear of a sharp down move cannot be ruled out in coming times. Today it again fell below its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that to keep the up-momentum going in the year 2025 it has to stay above this point, else it may drift down, furthermore it slipped into medium term correction mode today for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 54460.45 and also closed below its pullback threshold point of 54434.10(figure may change) therefore further fall is very much on the cards in coming times. However still if it manages to hold the range of 54176.45---54166.73 & 54117.22 it can bounce back, but break & sustained close below 54117.22 will push it into deep correction mode and it may trigger fresh fall. Moving down further the broad support points could be at 53888—53839----53739----53545---53358-----53447---52891---52760----52628---52577-----51900---51808(some figure may change), it may bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below the range of 53888----53839---53739(reasonable bounce back range) may witness an accelerated fall and thereafter break and close below each point will weaken it. The long term trend is still bullish but now it is into short term correction mode.  I once again reiterate that in view of the vertical rise, unfilled gaps and deep overbought zone, so the on-going fall may extend further in coming days with in between short relief rallies. So be extremely cautious and alert in the long trade.    

Moving up the resistance points could be at 54467.35---55088----55101----55278-----55538-----55648-----55740---55827---55958----56099----56159—56307—56721—56767, it could correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or may pause the rally for a while or may end it for good. Please note that to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025 it has to move above 54467.35 and sustain on the closing basis and to keep the up-move going in the month of May-2025 it has to move above 55088 & 55101 and sustain on the closing basis.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It is making lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart now, furthermore after a long time it slipped below few short term moving average on the daily chart, which is a weak sign, but it is above all short term moving average on the weekly & monthly chart, it is above medium and long term moving average on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, which is positive sign for moving up further. But certain important technical indicators has turned negative and triggered sell mode in MACD & PS and in other indicator and in the overbought zone, but at the same time few indicators are still positive. So, in totality it is giving mixed signal but slight tilt towards weakness, furthermore  vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and overbought zone is  also a concern, so it may correct at times and it is in short & medium corrective mode, therefore it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the important indicators are positive and in the buy mode, but negative divergence and the overbought zone is a concern, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart few indicators are in buy mode but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods therefore further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is buying on decline market now till it holds the range of 54176.45 & 54117.22 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. Few important technical indicators are positive now on the daily chart and in the buy mode.

2. It is way above its most crucial bottoms of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be very good.

3. It is above its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

4. It is above all its long-term moving averages and the top average is placed at 51509 (figure will change every day). Close below this point will be a warning signal.

5. It is above its deep correction threshold points of 54117.22 (figure may change) for its recent rise.

6. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. It is in the overbought zone and few indicators turned into sell mode on the daily chart such as MACD /PS & EV, so, it can correct at times and it is already into correction mode.

3. It is into short & medium correction mode as it is below its correction threshold point of 55537.36 & 54460.450 (figure may change) sustained close below this is a weak indication and can drag it down. 

4. It has made lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.

5. It is below (except for few) all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 54906--54769--54601---54582---53896----53839(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may drag it down.

6 It is below its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it may drift down.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 54176----54117 if it maintains the range for some time, but not below it with a stop loss of 53850 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair, so be vigilant and cautious.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 54850—54900 with a stop loss of 55150 or can sell if it moves below 54270 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 54500 .It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.