A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-13.5.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—24420.10—High—24944.80---Low---24378.85---Close---24924.70 on 12.5.2025.

Support:24857.75/24854.80/24792.30/24753.15/24694.35/24589.15/24537.60/24498.20/24472.80/24354.55/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened with a huge up-gap and thereafter steadily moved up during the day and finally, ended the day with a whopping gain of 916.70 points. Please note that the gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 4—5 days, which is technically possible the it can come down to 24164, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for a while, but it will certainly fill the gap one day for sure. It is important to mention here that it has other recent unfilled gaps (gap points are 22923, 22468 & 22254) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, so, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The overall technical setup is strong for the continuation of the up-move. Furthermore today it got out of all recent corrective modes and it seems that it has gotten into strong momentum up-track as it decisively moved above its most critical point of 24753.15 and if it sustains above it on the closing then the up-move is likely to extend further for sure.  But if it moves below it then the immediate support points could be at 24706.66---24526.40----24440.28---24412.20---24334.25---24311.90—24171---24137.56(figures may change), it may bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below 27706.66 will push it into short correction again for very recent rise,  break & sustained close below 24334.25---24311.90 may dampen the chance of an up-move in the month of May-2025 and  finally break & sustained close below 24171---24137.56 may drag it down further. The overall trend is bullish as of now. Moving down further it will find its most important & critical support in the range of  23893.70----23869.65—23807.30 , it is a very strong bounce back support range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up-move will be good, but break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall and then comes its most critical  support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for a good up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis. The overall trend is up as of now.

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 24934---25207---25287----25371---25465---25996(some figures may change daily). It can correct at any of these points then may resume the up- move or rally may fizzle out also, but if it moves above 25371 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it also.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

Today it has crossed its previous top on the line & bar chart; it is above all its short, medium and long term moving average on the daily, weekly & on the monthly chart, which is a positive sign for moving up. Furthermore most of the important indicators have turned positive now and in the buy mode such as MACD, PS&ST, but RSI showing negative divergence and EV in sell mode.  So, in totality it is giving positive signal now for moving up. But earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and overbought zone is still a concern, so it may correct at times, so it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart important indicators such as MACD/ ADX/ PS &EV is in the buy mode, RSI has positive divergence, but it is in the deep overbought zone, so it can correct at times, but looks good for the up-move. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be  on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is buy on decline market now till it holds 24753.15 on the closing basis. But short trade can also be tried on the rise and near the critical resistance points or range with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH:-

1. Most of the technical indicators are positive, and MACD,ADX,PS & ST in buy mode.

2. It is above its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 23502 for the month of May-2025, it is a very good sign.

3. It is above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will start to drift down.

4. It is above its most critical First & second make or break bottom of 23893.70 & 24753.15, sustained close above it will enhance the chances of extending the up-move further.

5. It is way above its major long term rising trend line on the daily chart which is placed at 23415(figure will change every day) for the day.

6. It is above its very short, short &deep correction threshold points of 24706.66---24497.02---24412.20 & 23917.61(figure may change).

7 It is way above its top long-term moving averages which is placed at 24171 (figure will change every day) for the day, close below this point is a very weak sign.

8. It is  above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 24406----24380----24335----24279---24071---24027(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may help it to extend up-move further.

9. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Few technical indicators are negative and EV in sell mode, negative divergence in RSI and in the overbought zone so, it may correct at times.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 24754 but not below it with a stop loss of 24690 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 25320---25370 with a stop loss of 25420 or can sell if it moves below 24690 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 24780 . It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com