CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—48478.60---High—48574.70---Low—47841.30---Close—48114.30 on 3.3.2025.
Support:48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:48161.75/48203.45/48292.25/48525.60/48636.45/48734.35/48906.05/48972.55/49057.40/49459/49654.65/49688.80/49787.10/49836.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50641.75/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a positive and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 230.40 points. The gap it created on 28.2.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 3--4 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 48628, but if it does not fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but it will fill the gap some day. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The overall technical setup is weak,
as it is below all its short, medium & long term moving averages on the
daily chart and some below weekly & monthly chart also and some with
negative crossover; furthermore it is below its short, medium & long pullback
threshold points. Please note that to keep the hope alive for an up-move in the
month of March-2025 it has to stay
above the range of 48334.70---48078.70 but
today it closed with this range, which is a weak sign. So, all together it is
exhibiting weak undertone, and therefore further fall looks inevitable in the
coming days. However moving down its recent critical support points would be at
47898.35---47844.15--- 47756
& 47745(it had a feeble bounce from this range today), and this is a very strong bounce back
range. But please note that break
& sustained close below these points and particularly below 47756 & 47745 for a longer time
period can drag it down to the range of 46437---46077
and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower. Please note that
looking at the overall chart setup and technical parameters on the weekly &
monthly chart, it is likely to hit 44500
or lower in coming times as of now. It is important to mention here that as of
now it is also weak on the weekly & monthly chart and its technical parameters therefore it is not yet out of woods for the long term and
may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to
reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change. The short and medium-term trend is down
and the long-term uptrend is severely threatened and in jeopardy now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 48502.21---49268.39----49405.05---49654.65----49736---49981.52-----50049----50372----50489----50620----50841.90---50860.20----50953---51139-----51290(some
figure will change daily). Please note that, if it moves above its pullback
threshold range of 48502.21---49268.39----49405.05(figures may change) and
sustain on the closing basis, then it will enhance the chances of moving-up
further, if it moves above 49654.65 and
sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold which may help it
to build up base for extending the up-move, if it moves above 49736 and sustain then it may strengthen
further, if it moves above 49981.52
then it will get out of recent corrective mode and up-move may extend further,
if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20
and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up
move to continue in the year 2025 and if it moves above the range of 50953---51139-----51290 and sustain on
the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is
likely to extend the up-move for sure. But please note that it may get good
strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves above 52679.47 & 52920.42 (figure may
change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into
the strong up-momentum track again it has to move above 53142.14----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and
sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53142.14
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35
or may go beyond it also.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It has lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart, it
is below all its short term moving average on the daily, weekly & monthly chart,
it is below all its medium term moving average on the daily chart & majorly
below on the weekly chart also, and most importantly it is below all its long
term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long
term uptrend and it is highly concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend
for now. Furthermore all the seven important technical indicators are negative
now with majorly in the sell mode, but the
only comforting thing is that is in the oversold zone, so, it may rally at
times but here please note that it can remain in the oversold zone for a long
period of time in a weak market and a
meaningful relief rally may not happen, therefore, broadly it is emitting weak signal, so,
further fall looks inevitable in coming times with in between short relief
rally at times. Please keep an eye
on the price action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and huge negative divergence is there but is in the oversold/neutral zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, and it is below all its pullback threshold point therefore it is sell on the rise market now in general , but long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points with strict stop loss , for intraday corrective gains. It is suggested to avoid long trade in general till it closes above 49655 and sustain on the closing basis.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is in
the oversold zone, please note that it can remain in oversold zone for a long
period of time in a weak market.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators,
with huge negative divergence but in the oversold zone & on the monthly
chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and
sell mode MACD.
3. It is
below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73----49981.52---49368.02 (figure may change) and if it sustains below these points
then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold
points are 45416.49 (figure may change)
4. Almost
all out of seven important technical indicators are negative with major
indicators in the sell mode.
5. The long-term
uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages.
6. It is below
its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it
must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025,
else it will drift down sharply.
7. It is below
its crucial bottom of 49654.65.
8 It is
below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 49314---49050---49017---48870-----48768----48669(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may accelerate the down-move.
9. It is
below its short, medium & long pullback threshold point of 48502.21---49268.39----49405.05
(figure may change), sustained close below these points can take it down
further.
10. It has
lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.
11. The price action was negative today.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 48080 if it holds this point for
some time then with a stop loss of
47900 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 48570—48670 with
a stop loss of 48850 or can sell if it moves below 48070 and
maintain for some time with a stop loss of 48350. It could be a risky
trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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