CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—49375.40---High—49807.55---Low—49324.80---Close—49702.60 on 19.3.2025.
Support:49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:49787.10/49836.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50641.75/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 388.10 points. The gap it created on 18.3.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 3-4 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 48481.35, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
Today’s up-move has further improved and strengthen the technical setup as it moved above its most critical /make or break bottom of 49654.65 and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to extend further for sure, break & sustained close below it could be a warning signal for down move to start again and moving down its next important support points could be at 49310.95---49300 & 49162.65(figures may change), break below 49310.95 will push it into correction mode for its recent rise and break below 49300 & 49162.65 will weaken the chances of a continued up-move. Moving down further the next support range could be 48740—48642---48577 (figures will change every day) it could be a good bounce back range, but break below this range may trigger fresh fall and then it may find support at 48478.60---48396.47---48334.70---48078.70, break & sustained close below these points may accelerate the fall and moving down further its immediate last critical support points would be at 47898.35---47844.15--- 47756 & 47745, and this is a very strong bounce back range. But please note that break & sustained close below these points and particularly below 47756 & 47745 for a longer time period can drag it down to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower. It is important to mention here that on the daily chart it is looking good for continuation of the up-move as of now, but it is still weak on the weekly & monthly chart and its technical parameters are also weak, therefore it is not yet out of woods for the long term perspective and may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change. The short term bias is up, but medium-term trend is still down and the long-term uptrend is still threatened and in jeopardy as of now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 49981.52------50196----50228----50369.40----50537----50618----50841.90---50860.20----50888---50948-----51285(some figure will change daily).
Please note that, if it moves above 49981.52 then it will get out of its
part earlier corrective mode and it may move up further, if it moves above 50369.40 and sustain on the closing
basis then the up-move is likely to extend further for sure, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis then it
will keep the hope alive for the up move to continue in the year 2025
and if it moves above the range of 50888---50948-----51285
and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will
dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But please note
that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves
above 52679.47 & 52920.42 (figure may
change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into
the strong up-momentum track again it has to move above 53114.46----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and
sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53114.46
and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35
or may go beyond it also.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It has crossed its lower tops on the line & bar chart
both, it has moved above all its short term moving average on the daily chart ,
but below few on the weekly & monthly chart, it is above few medium term
moving average on the daily & weekly chart & below few on the daily & weekly chart also,
and most importantly it is below almost all its long term moving average except
for one on the daily chart, which is still a threat to the long term uptrend and
it is concerning. Please note that almost all the important technical
indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy mode and with positive
divergence but in the overbought zone,
so, it may correct at times. Therefore, broadly it is emitting positive signal now and it
can surprise on the upside in coming times , but mind you as of now it is a
pullback rally only and can fizzle out abruptly also, so be cautious and
alertly play this rally and keep an eye on the critical points and price action
for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and huge negative divergence is there but is in the oversold/neutral zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but it is above all its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds 49654.65 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. Almost all
the important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy
mode with positive divergence.
2. It is
above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 48740--48711--48651---48642---48562----48517(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may witness an extended up-move.
3. It is
above its short, medium & long pullback threshold point of 48396.47---49162.65----49300
(figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to
extend the up-move.
4. It crossed
it previous lower top on the line & bar chart today.
5. It is above
its most crucial bottom of 49654.65, if it sustains above it on the closing basis
then the up-move is likely to extend for sure.
6. The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Please
note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators,
with huge negative divergence but in the oversold zone & on the monthly
chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and
sell mode MACD.
3. It is
below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73----49981.52--- (figure may change) and if it sustains below these points
then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold
points are 49368.02----49310.95----48999.71---45416.49 (figure may
change)
4. It is in
the overbought zone.
5. The long-term
uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below almost all its long-term moving averages
except for one which is placed at 49577 (figure will change every day).
6. It is below
its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it
must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025,
else it will drift down sharply.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range 49655----49581 but not below it with a stop loss of 49290 or can buy if it moves above 49822 and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 49570 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in
a corrective market could be a risky bet.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 50080—50180 with
a stop loss of 50280. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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