CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—49927.10---High—50672.15---Low—49891.95---Close—50593.55 on 21.3.2025.
Support:50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:50641.75/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 530.70 points. Please note that it has been vertically rising for the last 7 days in a row and with each rising day, vulnerability of correction is increasing, although it is showing good strength now for the continuation of the up move but it may correct any time soon, so be cautious. Furthermore the gap it created on 18.3.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 1-2 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 48481.35, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup has improved further and showing good strength now for the continuation of the up-move as today it closed above its another most important & critical resistance point of 50369.40, and if it holds this point on the closing basis then it is likely to surge ahead further in coming days. But even if it break this level then moving down it has critical support point at 49971.34(figure may change) which is a correction threshold point and then it has another most critical /make or break support point at 49654.65 and if it sustains above these two points on the closing basis then it may resume the up-move again, but break & sustained close below 49971.34 will push it into correction mode for its recent rise, break & sustained close below 49654.65 could be a strong warning signal for the end of the up-move for a while and it may trigger strong down move and then its next support points could be at 49300 & 49162.65(figures may change), break below these points will terribly weaken the chances of a continued up-move. Moving down further the next support range could be 49031—48878---48742---48695 (figures will change every day) it could be a reasonable bounce back range, but break below this range may trigger fresh fall and then it may find support at 48478.60---48396.47---48334.70, break & sustained close below these points may accelerate the fall and moving down further its immediate last critical support points would be at 47898.35---47844.15--- 47756 & 47745, and this is a very strong bounce back range. But please note that break & sustained close below these points and particularly below 47756 & 47745 for a longer time period can drag it down to much lower levels. The short term bias is up, but medium-term trend is still down and the long-term uptrend is still threatened as of now.
Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 50635----50841.90---50860.20----50961-----51086---51280(some figure will change daily).
Please note that, if it moves above 50841.90
& 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope
alive for the up move to continue in the year 2025 and if it moves above
the range of 50961-----51086----51280
and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will
dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. Moving up further the broad
resistance points could be at 51526----51883----52429----52652----52871---53888----53114.46,
it could correct at any of these points and then rally may resume or can fizzle
out also, but if it moves above 52652 &
53114.46 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest one of its
top of 53888.30 and its ultimate top
of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It has crossed its lower tops on the line & bar chart
both, it is above all its short term moving average on the daily, weekly and above almost all on the monthly chart
also , it is above almost all medium term moving average on the daily chart, and
majorly above on the weekly chart, and most importantly it has moved above more
than half of its long term moving averages on the daily chart, which is a very positive
sign but still there is a threat to the
long term uptrend till it moves above all the averages. Furthermore almost all the
important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy mode
and with huge positive divergence but in the deep overbought zone on the daily chart, so, it may correct at times. But, it is emitting positive signal now therefore
likely to continue the up-move in coming times with in between correction or
till it holds its key support points as mentioned in the above paragraph. But
mind you as of now it seems to be a pullback rally only and can fizzle out
abruptly also, so be cautious and alertly ride this rally and keep an eye on
the critical points and price action for further directional indication and
change of the trajectory.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
On the weekly chart certain indicators has turned positive now, although it is in the sell mode in the few indicators, but there is huge positive divergence and is in the oversold/neutral zone, so it can rally further from here. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks or months . So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.
IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is into deep correction mode for its earlier rise, but it is above all its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds 50369.40 and then 49971.34 & 49654.65 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. Almost all
the important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy
mode with huge positive divergence.
2. It is
above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 49281--49254--49031---48878---48871----48742(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may witness an extended up-move.
3. It is
above its short, medium & long pullback threshold point of 48396.47---49162.65----49300
(figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to
extend the up-move.
4. It crossed
it previous lower top on the line & bar chart today.
5. It is above
its most crucial bottom of 50369.40 & 49654.65, if it sustains above these on the closing basis
then the up-move is likely to extend further for sure.
6. The
long-term uptrend is also on the verge of revival as it is above more than half
of its all long-term moving averages and
the averages are at placed at 51280---50961---50836---50635---50524----50212----50200---49896--49582 (figure will change every day). This is very comforting sign for the continuation of
the up move.
7. It is
above its recent correction threshold point of 49971.34(figure may change).
8. The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. It is in
the deep overbought zone on the daily chart, so it may correct.
3. It is below
its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it
must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025,
else it will drift down sharply.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range 50398----50369 but not below it with a stop loss of 50150 for a possible
intraday gain, else avoid.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51180—51280 with
a stop loss of 51430. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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