A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—19.3.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—48792.90---High—49400.30---Low—48629.45---Close—49314.50 on 18.3.2025.                                                                          

Support:49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:49459/49654.65/49688.80/49787.10/49836.10/49904.40/49974.75/50194.30/50369.40/50382.10/50438.30/50641.75/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened with an up gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 960.35 points. The gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 4-5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 48481.35, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

Today’s up-move has improved the technical setup reasonably well as it moved above its medium & long pullback threshold points of 49162.65 & 49300 and after a long time it moved above its short term moving averages also, which is a positive sign for the continuation of the up-move. Therefore please note that as long as it holds 49300 & 49162.65 and then 48999.71(figure may change) and finally the range of 48639—48620---48568 (figures will change every day) on the closing basis then the on-going up-move may extend. But break & sustained close below 49300 & 49162.65 will be a warning sign, break below 48999.71 will push it into correction mode for its recent rise and finally break and sustained close below the range of 48639—48620---48568  may trigger fresh fall and then it may find support at 48478.60---48396.47---48334.70---48078.70, break & sustained close below these points may accelerate the fall and moving down its immediate last critical support points would be at   47898.35---47844.15--- 47756 & 47745, and this is a very strong bounce back range. But please note that break & sustained close below these points and particularly below 47756 & 47745 for a longer time period can drag it down to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower. It is important to mention here that as of now it is still weak on the weekly & monthly chart and its technical parameters are also weak, therefore it is not yet out of woods for the long term perspective and may witness moderate to sharp fall in coming weeks & months, but it has to reviewed at regular interval for any potential positive/negative change. The short term bias is slightly up, but medium-term trend is down and the long-term uptrend is threatened and in jeopardy as of now. 

 Similarly moving up the key resistance points would be at 49590----49654.65----49981.52------50200----50241----50550----50614----50841.90---50860.20----50890---50943-----51280(some figure will change daily). Please note that,  if it moves above 49590 it will show some strength,  if it moves above 49654.65 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold which may help it to build up base for extending the up-move,  if it moves above 49981.52 then it will get out of recent corrective mode and up-move may extend further, if it moves above 50841.90 & 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis then it will keep the hope alive for the up move to continue in the year 2025 and if it moves above the range of 50890---50943-----51280 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and then it is likely to extend the up-move for sure. But please note that it may get good strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves above 52679.47 & 52920.42 (figure may change daily) and sustain on the closing basis and finally to get back into the strong up-momentum track again it has to move above 53114.46----53331.55----53370.43----53500.30(figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis. Please note that if it moves above 53114.46 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its all-time high of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.

IMPORTANT NOTE: --

1. It has given upside breakout from the weekly range, therefore as long as it holds 48599 during the on-going week the up move may continue with in between short down move. 

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has crossed its lower top on the line & bar chart both, it has moved above all its short term moving average on the daily chart , but below few on the weekly & monthly chart, it is above few medium term moving average on the daily & weekly chart &  below few on the daily & weekly chart also, and most importantly it is below all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning and jeopardized the long term uptrend for now. Furthermore, almost all important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy mode and with positive divergence but in the overbought zone, so, it may correct at times. Therefore, broadly it is emitting positive signal now and it can surprise on the upside in coming times , but mind you as of now it is a pullback rally only and can fizzle out abruptly, so be cautious and alertly play this rally and keep an eye on the critical points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are negative now, it is in the sell signal in maximum indicators, and huge negative divergence is there but is in the oversold/neutral zone. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart as of now indicates that it is not yet out of woods and further fall is very much on the horizon in coming weeks and months and down move is on. So keep a watch on the price action for further directional indication.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but it is above all its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds the range of 48650---48580(figures will change every day) on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. Almost all the important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy mode with positive divergence.

2. It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 48639--48620--48490---48459---48409----48371(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range may witness an extended up-move.

3. It is above its short, medium & long pullback threshold point of 48396.47---49162.65----49300 (figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to extend the up-move.

4. It crossed it previous lower top on the line & bar chart today.

5. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Please note that indicators, on the weekly chart it is in the sell mode in maximum indicators, with huge negative divergence but in the oversold zone & on the monthly chart, indicating overbought condition and with huge negative divergence and sell mode MACD.

3. It is below few of its corrective threshold points of 53500.30-----53370.43---53331.55----52920.42---52487.43---52098.30------51549.93-----50725.73----49981.52---49368.02 (figure may change) and if it sustains below these points then it may extend the down move. The other important key correction threshold points are 48999.71---45416.49 (figure may change)  

4. It is in the overbought zone.

5. The long-term uptrend is in jeopardy as it is below all its long-term moving averages.

6. It is below its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down sharply.

7. It is below its crucial bottom of 49654.65.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range 49121----49000 but not below it with a stop loss of 48850 or can buy if it moves above 49401 and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 49200 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 49900—50000 with a stop loss of 50150. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.