A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-5.9.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-25089.95--High-25216—Low---25083.80---Close-25198.70 on 4.9.2024.

Support:25078.30/24999.75/24964.65/24854.80/24771.65/24472.80/24401/24210.80/24168.85/24141.80/24099.70/24074.20/23992.65/23985.80/23893.70.

Resistance:25333.65/25337/25375/25473/25494/25551/25671/25868/25967/26118/26263.

OVERALL, VIEW: --  

After 14 days of vertical rise in a row finally, it opened with a down gap today and thereafter traded in a range during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 81.15 points. The gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in the next 4-5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 25235.80, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then chances of filling the gap will recede for a while, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. Please note that today’s down move was just a breather after 14 days of straight rise and it still not into proper correction mode, which indicates extraordinary strength in it for the continuation of the up move, it will get into proper correction mode once it moves below 25042.44 & 24993.82 and sustain on the closing basis and thereafter on the down move if it could manages to hold the range of 24964.65---24950---24879---24742(figure will change daily) it could still bounce back, else it may trigger fresh fall. It is in the long term uptrend now.

Similarly if it sustain above 25142.76(figure may change) on the closing basis, then it may resume the up move again ,but to keep the up momentum going in the month of September-2024 it has to maintain above 25235.90---25268.35 & 25333.65 on the closing basis ,which may please be noted.

It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present but it neutralized on the daily chart little while ago and now again it is in the overbought territory and most importantly negative divergence on the daily and weekly chart is also concerning, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down after this up move is over. So be watchful and alert.

Moving down from here it may find good support at 25165----25086----25078.30----25073----25042.44----24993.82----24950----24879-----24854.80-------24841.38----24742----24626------24486------24346---24269.80---24235.75----24099.70-----24074.20---23992.70---23985.80----23893.70(few figures may change Daily) break below the range of 25078.30---25042.44---24993.82---24964.65 will push it into correction mode for its recent rise and thereafter break below each point will weaken it, and break and sustained close below of 24742 may trigger fresh fall, break and close below the range of 24327.41---24293.30----24099.70-----24074.20 may accelerate the fall and thereafter break and close below the range of 23992.70---23985.80----23893.70 may trigger fresh big down move and if sustain below this range then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both.

It is out of all corrective mode therefore it is buying on decline market now in general, but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains. Please note that since it is out of corrective mode therefore sell trade could be a slightly risky affair therefore one should be extra alert in the short trade.

NOTE:-MOVING DOWN IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 25078.30---25042.44---24993.82---24964.65, THEN IT COULD STILL BOUNCE BACK AND MAY RESUME THE UP MOVE AGAIN, ELSE IT MAY TRIGGER FALL. IT IS IN THE LONG-TERM UPTREND NOW.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend now.   

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. It still has higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart on the daily chart.

4. Four out of seven important technical indicators on the daily chart is positive.

5. It is above all its short-term moving averages on the daily chart and the important range for the day is between 25165---25086----25073----24950----24879----24742(figure will change every day), if it sustains above it then it is a strong sign for the continuation of the up-move.

6. It is out of all correction modes and the important correction threshold points are 25042.44 24993.82----24377.33 & 24343.33 (figure may change) close below the threshold points is a weak sign.

7. It is above its recent pullback threshold point of 25142.76(figure may change), if it sustain above it on the closing basis then it may resume the up move again, else it may drift down.

8. It is in the new zone.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Three out of seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart, which indicates overbought condition and negative divergence.    

2. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

3. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

4. The price action was weak today.

 

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 25142---25080 with a stop loss of 24940 or can buy if it moves above 25236 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 25135  for possible intraday gains, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 25300--25330 with a stop loss of 25385 or can sell if it moves below 25135 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 25240. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com