A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—26.9.2024

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—53794--High—54141.30--Low—53792.85--Close—54101.65 on 25.9.2024.

 

Support:53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52547.55/52340.25/51996.65/51957/51877.15/51750.10/51138.90/51133.20/50947.70/50438.20/50369.40/49974.75/49659.05/49688.85/49654.65/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85. 

Resistance:54247.70/54283/54365/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55827/56135/56218.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain/loss of 133.05 points. The technical setup is extraordinarily strong for the continuation of the up move, but the volatility is a huge concern. It is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart; it is above all its short, medium and long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart. Therefore all together it is pointing that the up move can continue provided it holds the range of 53968.60----53468.90----53435---53357.70----53332.49-----53163.74 (figures may change) on the closing basis, close below  53968.60 will indicate that it could get into correction mode, break and close below 53468.90 will push it into correction mode and thereafter close below each point will deepen the correction, sustained close below the range of 53136----52980(figure will change daily) may trigger fresh fall and sustained close below the range of 52630----52442----52319.62---52114 (figures may change) may accelerate the down move.

It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present but it neutralized on the daily chart a  little while ago but now again in overbought  zone  and most importantly negative divergence, sell mode still there  on the  weekly chart is very concerning, therefore, despite the recent robust rise ,all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down  in coming days, so keep an  eye on the indicators change and price action weakness for any untoward down move. It is in the long term uptrend now.

Similarly moving down from here it may find broad support at (for other support points see the table on the upside) 53468.90----53435----53357.70-----53332.49------53163.74----53136----52987-------52980----52630-----52598----52442----52319.62------52208-----52114-----51930.49-----51727-----51608----51382.12----51285-----51145-----50947.70-----50557.95----50443----50372----50332-----50015-----49654------49526------49033.91----48636.45---48292.25---48203.45---47795.89----47533.83(figures may change), it can bounce back from any of these points, break and close below  53968.60 will indicate that it could get into correction mode, break and close below 53468.90 will push it into correction mode and thereafter close below each point of 53357.70----53332.49-----53175----53163.74  will deepen the correction,  break and close below the range of 53136----52980 may trigger fresh fall and break and close below the range of 52630----52442----52319.62---52114  may accelerate the fall. Please note that the range of 50443----50372----50332-----50015----49654---49526(figure will change every day) is a very strong bounce back support range, but sustained break and close below the range of 50443----50372----50332 will threaten the long term uptrend and break and sustained close below the range of50015----49654---49526 may accelerate the fall further.

It is buy on decline market in general now, but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.  

NOTE: - IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 53468.90----53357.70----53332.49-----53163.74 (FIGURES MAY CHANGE) ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN THE UP MOVE CAN EXTEND, ELSE IT MAY CORRECT. IT IS IN THE LONG TERM UPTREND AS OF NOW. FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG TRADE FOR THE DAY IF IT SUSTAINS BELOW 53968 FOR REASONABLE PERIOD OF TIME.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend now, but break below 50372 will threaten the long term uptrend.

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3. Six out of seven indicators are positive now.

4. It is out of all corrective mode and the important correction threshold points are 53468.90-----53332.49-----53163.74---52319.62----51930.49----51382.12---50557.95----49033.91----45248.68 (figure may change) and if it sustain above these points it may have smooth continuation of the up move, break below each point will make the correction deeper. 

5. It is above all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for today is between 53435---53136---52980----52630----52442----52114(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can extend the up move.

6. It is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart now. 

7. It is in the new zone.                               

WEAKNESS: -

1. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

2. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

3. One out of seven important indicators is on the daily, weekly & monthly chart, indicating overbought condition.

4 The price action was weak today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 54014----53970 with a stop loss of 53850 or can buy if it moves above 54106  and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 53900 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 54370---54450 with a stop loss of 54550 or can sell if it moves below 53960 with a stop loss of 54120 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.