A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-26.9.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-25899.45--High-26032.80—Low---25871.35---Close-26004.15 on 25.9.2024.

Support:25445/25333.65/25285.55/25078.30/24885.15/24854.80/24753.15/24461.05/24141.80/24099.70/24074.20/23893.70/23667.20/23664/23350/23338.20/23110.80/22794.70/22775.70/22526.60.

Resistance:26032.80/26118/26273/26995/27212/27381.

OVERALL, VIEW: --   

It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and in the process hit a new all-time high of 26032.80 and finally ended the day with a gain of 63.75 points. It is hitting new high every other day. The technical setup is extraordinarily strong but volatility is a huge concern. It is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart, above all short, medium and long term moving averages on the daily weekly and monthly chart, which is a huge positive sign for the continuation of the up move, except for the few technical indicators which are indicating otherwise and volatility can spoil the party if price action weakens, so be vigilant and watch the price action carefully, for the continuation of the up move. Please note that if it holds the range of 25856.45----25730.80----25724----25640----25601----25527.97 (figure may change) on the closing basis, then the up move can extend, close below 25856.45 will push it into correction mode and thereafter close below each point will deepen the correction, sustained close below the range of 25487----25393----25377.55 (figure may change) may trigger fresh fall and finally sustained close below the range of  25352----25333.65-----25285.55----(figure will change daily) may accelerate the down move.

It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present but it neutralized on the daily chart a little while ago but now again in overbought zone and most importantly negative divergence appeared on the  weekly chart is also very concerning,  therefore, despite the recent robust rise  some indication based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is still pointing that it could head down  in coming days, so keep an  eye on the indicator change and  weak price action for any untoward move on the downside. It is in the long term uptrend now.

Moving down from here it may find good support at 25856.45----25747-----25730.80-----25724-----25659-----25640----25601----25571----25527.97----25487-----25462-----25435-----25393----25377.55------25352----25333.65----25329----25305----25285.55-----25242----25150----25078.30-----25055----25009----24911.48-----24753.15----24334.79-----24099.70-----24074.20----23893.70(few figures may change Daily) it can bounce back from any of these points, but close below 25856.45 will push it into short correction mode and thereafter break and close below  25730.80---25527.97, will deepen the correction, break and close below the range of 25487----25393----25377.55  may trigger fresh fall, close below the range of 25352----25333.65-----25285.55 may accelerate the fall and close below 24753.15 may accelerate the fall further  and thereafter break below each point will weaken it further and finally break and close below 23893.70 may trigger fresh big down move and if sustain below it then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both.

It is buy on decline market in general now, but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.  

NOTE:-IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 25856.45----25730.80----25724----25640----25601----25527.97 (FIGURE MAY CHANGE) ON THE CLOSING BASIS THE UP MOVE CAN EXTEND. IT IS IN THE LONG-TERM UPTREND.

 STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend now.   

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. Six out of seven important technical indicators on the daily chart is positive.

4. It is out of correction mode. The important correction threshold points are 25856.45----25730.80----25527.97----24911.48-----24877.44----24334.79---23860.55----23472.34---21661.68 (figure may change) close above the threshold points is a good sign for the continuation of the up move, break below each points will deepen correction.

5. It is well above all its short-term moving averages on the daily chart and the important range for the day is between 25724---25640----25601----25487----25393----25352(figure will change every day), if it sustains above this range then it is a positive sign for the continuation of the up move.

6. It is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart now.                                   

7. It is in the new zone.

8. The price action was mixed today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. One out of seven important technical indicators on the daily chart, indicating overbought condition and few indicators on the weekly chart also indication overbought condition and negative divergence and finally monthly chart also indicates overbought condition.    

2. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

3. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 25964---25924 with a stop loss of 25860 or can be tried if it moves above 26045 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 25980 for possible intraday gains, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 26125--26165 with a stop loss of 26215 or can sell if it moves below 25860 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 25930. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com