A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-19.9.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-25402.40--High-25482.20—Low---25285.55---Close-25377.55 on 18.9.2024.

Support:25333.65/25083.80/25078.30/24999.75/24964.65/24854.80/24771.65/24472.80/24401/24210.80/24168.85/24141.80/24099.70/24074.20/23992.65/23985.80/23893.70.

Resistance:25484.20/25479/25520/25551/25624/25671/25717/25769/25868/25914/25967/26118/26263.

OVERALL, VIEW: --   

It opened on a flat to negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and in the process it hit a new all-time high of 25482.20 but could not sustain at the upper level and finally ended the day with a loss of 41 points. The technical setup is good but the volatility is a concern. It is out of corrective mode, making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart, above all short, medium and long term moving averages on the daily weekly and monthly chart, which is a huge positive sign for the continuation of the up move, except for the few technical indicators which are weak and can spoil the party if price action weakens, so be vigilant and watch the price action carefully, for continuation of the up move. Please note that if it holds the range of 25356.50---25333.65---25310.14------25268.35(figure may change) on the closing basis, then the up move can extend, break and close below this range will weaken it and break and sustained close below the range of 25247---25200---25181---25133---25100(figures will change daily) will trigger fresh fall.   

It is important to mention here that it is having see-saw movement quite often with huge volatility, which is not good sign for a steady market, the overbought condition on the weekly and monthly chart is still present but it neutralized on the daily chart a little while ago but now again in overbought zone and most importantly negative divergence appeared on the daily and weekly chart is also very concerning, therefore, all indication together based on few indicators on the daily, weekly & monthly chart is pointing that it could head down  in coming days, so keep an  eye on the indicator change and price action for any untoward movement. It is in the long term uptrend now.

Moving down from here it may find good support at 25356.50---25333.65---25310.14----25270----25268.35----25247----25235.90---25200---25181----25133----25107.31---25101----25078.30----24753.15----24490.82-----24456.78----24099.70-----24074.20---23992.70---23985.80----23914.13----23893.70(few figures may change Daily) it can bounce back from any of these points, but close below 25356.50 will be an indication that it may correct, break & close below 25310.14 will push it into correction mode, break and close below the range of 25270---25247---25200----25181---25133-----25107.31---25101---25078.30  may trigger fresh fall and break and close below 24753.15 may accelerate the fall and thereafter break below each point will weaken it further,  break and close below 24490.82 & 24456.78  may accelerate the fall further and finally break and close below the range of 23992.70---23985.80----23914.13----23893.70 may trigger fresh big down move and if sustain below this range then the correction could be more painful price-wise and time-wise both.

Since it is out of correction mode therefore it is buy on decline market in general, but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.   

NOTE:-IF IT HOLDS THE RANGE OF 25333.65---25310.14---25268.35----25235.90(FIGURE MAY CHANGE) ON THE CLOSING BASIS THE UP MOVE CAN EXTEND. IT IS IN THE LONG-TERM UPTREND. FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO AVOID LONG TRADE FOR THE DAY IF IT SUSTAINS BELOW 25356.

 STRENGTH: -

1. It is in the long-term uptrend now.   

2. It is far-far above its most critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. Four out of seven important technical indicators on the daily chart is positive.

4. It is out of correction mode today. The important correction threshold points are 25310.14----25107.31---24490.82----24456.78---23914.13----23439.89----23051.68 & 21241.02 (figure may change) close above the threshold points is a good sign for the continuation of the up move.

5. It is well above all its short-term moving averages on the daily chart and the important range for the day is between 25270---25247----25200----25181----25133----25101(figure will change every day), if it sustains above this range then it is a positive sign and the up move can extend.

6. The price action was mixed today.

7. It is making higher top & bottom on the line & bar chart now.                                   

8. It is in the new zone.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Three out of seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart, which indicates overbought condition and negative divergence, which may drag it down.    

2. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

3. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 25356---25328 if it hold this range for some time with a stop loss of 25260 or if it moves above 25427 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 25340 for possible intraday gains, else avoid.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 25490--25530 with a stop loss of 25600 or can sell if it moves below 25333 with a stop loss of 25420. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com