A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-25.7.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-24444.95--High-24504.25—Low—24307.25--Close-24413.50 on 24.7.2024.

Support:24174/24168.85/24141.80/23992.65/23985.80/23667.10/23398/23350/23338.70/23206.65/23110.80/22794.70/22768.40/22526.60/22417/2303.80/22297/22224.35/22126.80/21860/21821.05/21801.45/21777.65/21731.40/21727.75/21710.20.

Resistance:24461.05/24504.45/24854.80/24865/24978/25152/25318/25494/25551.

OVERALL VIEW: --

It opened on a negative note and thereafter  had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a loss of 65.55 points. It has weakened a bit but still exhibiting strength and the overall technical chart structure is looking good but the vertical rise, wild swings and volatility and most importantly major important technical indicators have turned negative on the daily chart, which is a concern and it could drag it down sharply in the coming days and it has been behaving in that direction for the last two days, which is weak sign. Furthermore it is into short correction mode now for its recent rise as it is below its correction threshold points of 24686.53---24649.72 & 24499.67(figure may change)-it has also moved below few of its short term moving averages also placed at 24526----24508----24465---24461---& 24450(figure will change every day) , however since the  technical chart setup  looks good therefore  it can still continue the up move provided it holds its rest first key support range points of 24346-----24273----24258.42-----24141.80----24011.49-----23992.70-----23985.80-----23667.10(figure may change) It is into correction mode for its recent rise, however it can bounce back from any of these points, but break below each point will deepen the correction, please note that till it holds 24258.42 on the closing basis the chances of up move will be alive. sustained close below  24258.42 & 24141.80 may accelerate the fall , break and sustained close below 24011.49---23998.46---23992.70 & 23985.80  may confirm that a big correction may be ahead and finally  break and close below 23667.10 may further accelerate the fall. It is important to mention here that even if it breaks the above mentioned range a glimmer of hope can  be there and it can still bounce back provided it holds the last range key support points of 23350----23338.70----23297.55----23206.65----23110.80(figure may change), else fall may deepen. Please note that break below its critical bottom & top of 23350 & 23338.70 on the closing basis can pull it down further and finally sustained break below 23110.80 may accelerate the fall. It is important to mention here that  some important technical indicators on the daily, weekly and monthly charts are still very weak and showing overbought condition also, which indicates that it may deeply correct in the coming days/weeks and could head down much lower fro here, but please note that if  price action remains good there is no major threat for it to move down but it has not been consistently good for quite some time and off late it is on sticky footing and the price action was mixed today, so keep an eye on the price action for further direction. Since it is into correction mode today therefore it is sell on the rise market in general but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.  

NOTE: - TECHNICAL INDICATORS ARE POINTING THAT A MODERATE TO BIG FALL MAY BE AHEAD IF IT FAILS TO MOVE ABOVE 24687 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SUSTAINED BREAK BELOW 24258 MAY TRIGGER FRESH FALL.  

STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend now.   

2. It is well above its critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. It is in the new zone.

4. It is still almost above all its short & medium  term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, and the important range is between 24544----24510----24475----24440---24311----24258(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger fresh down move again.

5. One out of seven important technical indicators is positive on the daily chart.

WEAKNESS:-.

1. It slipped into correction mode today as it closed below its correction threshold points of 24686.53----24649.72 & 24499.67. The other important correction threshold points are at 24011.49(figures may change). Please note that break below each point will make the correction deeper.

2. Six out of seven important technical indicators have turned negative on the daily chart    

3. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

4. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful. 6. The price action was positive today.

5. The price action was mixed today.

6. It has broken recent bottom of 24141.80 on the bar chart.

7. It is below almost  all its short term moving averages on the daily chart  and the important range is between 24526----24508----24465----24450---24346----24273(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger fresh down move again.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 24315----24260 with a stop loss of 24200, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains. 

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24512---24550 with a stop loss of 24620 or can sell if it moves below 24258 with a stop loss of 24370 It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com