A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-22.7.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-24853.80--High-24854.80—Low—24508.15--Close-24530.90 on 19.7.2024.

Support:24504.45/24461.05/24174/24168.85//23992.65/23985.80/23667.10/23398/23350/23338.70/23206.65/23110.80/22794.70/22768.40/22526.60/22417/2303.80/22297/22224.35/22126.80/21860/21821.05/21801.45/21777.65/21731.40/21727.75/21710.20.

Resistance: 24854.80/24865/24978/25152/25318/25494/25551.

OVERALL VIEW: --

It opened on a positive and hit a new all-time high of 24854.80 immediately and thereafter it steadily moved down and after 4 days of rise it finally ended the day with a loss of 269.95 points. It is exhibiting extraordinary strength and the overall technical chart structure is great but the vertical rise, wild swings and volatility is a concern and it could drag it down sharply in the coming days and it possibly showed a trailer of that today and it closed near the low of the week, which is weak sign. Furthermore today’s move has pushed it into short correction mode for its recent rise as it closed below its correction threshold points of 24686.53 & 24649.72, however since the  technical chart setup is  good therefore  it can still continue the up move provided it holds its rest first key support range points of 24504.45---24499.67------24475----24467----24461----24391----24214----24206----24141.80----24011.49-----23992.70-----23985.80-----23667.10(figure may change) It slipped into correction mode today for its recent rise, please note that it can bounce back from any of these points, but break below each point will deepen the correction, sustained close below  24206 & 24141.80 may accelerate the fall , break and sustained close below 24011.49---23998.46---23992.70 & 23985.80  may confirm that a big correction may be ahead and finally  break and close below 23667.10 may further accelerate the fall. It is important to mention here that even if it breaks the above mentioned range a glimmer of hope can  be there that it can still bounce back provided it holds the last range key support points of 23350----23338.70----23297.55----23206.65----23110.80(figure may change), else fall may deepen. Please note that break below its critical bottom & top of 23350 & 23338.70 on the closing basis can pull it down further and finally sustained break below 23110.80 may accelerate the fall. It is important to mention here that despite the recent rise some important technical indicators on the daily, weekly and monthly charts are still weak and showing overbought condition also, which indicates that it may deeply correct in the coming days/weeks, but please note that as long as price action remains good there is no major threat for it to move down and it has been consistent for quite some time and the price action was positive today, so keep an eye on the price action for further direction. Since it gotten into correction mode today therefore it is sell on the rise market in general but both side trades can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.  

NOTE: - IT HAS MADE DARK CLOUD COVER PATTERN ON THE CANDLESTICK CHART TODAY, WHICH IS A BEARISH PATTERN AND THAT TOO AT THE TOP, THEREFORE SUSTAINED BREAK BELOW 24504.45 CAN DRAG IT DOWN FAST. SIMILARLY SUSTAINED CLOSE ABOVE 24687 MAY PUT IT BACK ON THE UP MOVE AGAIN.

 STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend now.   

2. It is well above its critical points of 21821.05---21801.45---21777.65---21776.87---21731.40---21727.75 & 21710.20, which is must to keep the up momentum going in the year 2024. Sustained break below this range may witness accelerated fall.

3. It is in the new zone.

4. It is still almost above all its short & medium  term moving averages on the daily and weekly chart, and the important range is between 24540----24475----24467----24391---24214----24206(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger fresh down move again.

6. Three out of seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart.

8. The price action was positive today.

9. It has crossed all top on the line & bar chart both

WEAKNESS:-.

1. It slipped into correction mode today as it closed below its correction threshold points of 24686.53 & 24649.72. The other important correction threshold points are at 24499.67 & 24011.49(figures may change). Please note that break below each point will make the correction deeper.

2. Four out of seven important technical indicators have turned negative on the daily chart    

3. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

4. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 24504 if it holds this level for some time with a stop loss of 24435, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 24670---24720 with a stop loss of 24810 or can sell if it moves below 24504 with a stop loss of 245570. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com