A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—15.7.2024

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—52272.65--High—52794.55--Low—52171.15---Close—52278.90 on 12.7.2024.

Support: 52246.70/51996.65/51957/51138.90/51133.20/50252.95/49974.75/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.                           

Resistance: 52342.25/52351.15/53180.75/53357.70/53477/53503/53575/53633/53773/53913/53970/54070/54139/54257/54365/54604/54815/55097.

OVERALL VIEW: --

It opened on a flat to positive note and thereafter it had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day flat with a meager gain of 8.25 points. The chart setup has weakened   and the volatility and overbought condition is also a concern, furthermore it has made lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart , it is already into short correction mode for its recent rise as it is way below its threshold points of 53036.49----52834.06-----52454.47-and also below some short term moving averages and some other important points of 52533----52458---52425---52356 and most of the important technical indicators have turned negative on the daily chart, so all together it is showing weakness and pointing that it could head down further in coming days, however if it could still manages to hold its balance first key support range points of 52147-----52129-----51996.65 & 51957 (figures may change, it did break these points intraday on 11.7.2024 but bounced back to close above these points) on the closing basis then the chance of up move will still be alive. Please note that if it maintains above 52129(figure may change) on the closing basis then there is a possibility that it may resume the up move again, but it will gain some strength if it moves above 52533 (figure will change every day) and sustain on the closing basis, else it may slide down and close below 51996.65 & 51957 may accelerate the fall and will make the chart setup very weak.  It is important to mention here that  even if it breaks the above mentioned range, but moving down as long as it holds its last critical range of 51914----51639.66-----51133.20(figures may change) then there is a bleak chance that it could still move up but sustained break below 51914 will signal that a big fall may be ahead,  sustained break below 51133.20 may accelerate the fall and finally sustained break below the range of 48636.45---48617---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall and it could be moderate to sharp in the intensity and will threaten the long term uptrend also. It is important to mention here that most of the important technical indicators on the daily chart has turned weak today, and some indicators on the weekly and monthly chart are already weak and showing overbought condition, which indicates that it may deeply correct and may head for 51661 or much lower levels in the coming days/week/months, but please note that as long as price action remains good there is no major threat for it to move down and the price action is not consistent but it was positive today, so keep an eye on the price action for further direction. Since it is into correction mode therefore it is sell on the rise market in general but both side trade can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.  

NOTE: - CLOSE BELOW 51996.65 & 51957 MAY WITNESS AN ACCELERATED FALL.

  STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend, but break below 48617 will threaten the uptrend.

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

3. Two out of seven important technical indicators are positive on the daily chart.

WEAKNESS:-

1. The price action was weak today.

2. It is below most of its short term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for today is between 52533----52458----52425----52352----52147---51914(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger down move. It is below most of the averages now.

3. It is already into correction mode as it is below its threshold point of 53036.49---- 52834.06 & 52454.47, the other important correction threshold points are at 51639.66(figures may change). Please note that break below each point will make the correction deeper.    

4. It has made lower top & bottom on the line & bar chart.                                                       

5. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

6. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

7. Five out of seven important indicators are negative now.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 52189 if it holds this level for some time with a stop loss of 51890, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair.  

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52750---52850 with a stop loss of 52950 or can sell if it maintains  below 52129 with a stop loss of 52360. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.