A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—24.7.2024

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—52511--High—52547.55--Low—51342.65---Close—51778.30on 23.7.2024.

Support:51749.45/51138.90/51133.20/49974.75/49530.45/49057.40/48636.45/48313.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/47435.75/46983.75/46579/46077.85.                           

Resistance: 51957/51996.65/52246.70/52342.25/52351.15/52794.55/53180.75/53357.70/53477/53503/53575/53633/53773/53913/53970/54070/54139/54257/54365/54604/54815/55097.

OVERALL VIEW: --

It opened on a big positive note but did not move much higher after that and thereafter steadily moved down and finally ended the day flat with a loss of 502.10 points. The chart setup has terribly weakened as it closed below it first critical key support range of 53036.49----52834.06---52454.47----52484---52458----52376---52373---52369------52103----51996.65----51957----51818.20 (figures may change), furthermore , it is already into short correction mode for its recent rise as it is way below its correction threshold points, it has also moved below all its short term moving averages today and below few medium term moving averages also and all  the important technical indicators have turned negative on the daily chart, so all together it is showing gross weakness and pointing that it could head down further in coming days. Please note that if it moves above 51818.20 (figure may change) and sustain on the closing basis then the chances are that it may resume the up move again but it will gain strength only if it moves above 52490(figure will change daily) and sustain on the closing basis, else down move may continue.  It is important to mention here that even now there is a bleak chance that it could still bounce back provided it holds 51639.66 & 51133.20(figures may change) but sustained break and close below 51639.66 will signal that a big  correction may be ahead,  sustained break below 51133.20 may accelerate the fall further, break and close below 48924 will threaten the long term uptrend and finally sustained break and close below the range of 48636.45---48292.25 &48203.45 will trigger fresh fall and it could be sharp in the intensity and could be painful time-wise and price-wise both. I once again repeat that all the important technical indicators on the daily chart have turned weak and some indicators on the weekly and monthly chart are also weak and showing overbought condition, which indicates that it may deeply correct in the coming days/week/months, but please note that as long as price action remains good there is no major threat for it to move down and the price action is not consistent off late and it was very weak today, so keep an eye on the price action for further direction. Since it is into correction mode therefore it is sell on the rise market in general but both side trade can be tried depending on the price action for intraday gains.  

NOTE: - IF IT MOVES ABOVE 51818.20---51957 & 51996.65 AND SUSTAIN ON THE CLOSING BASIS THEN IT MAY RESUME THE UP MOVE AGAIN, ELSE DOWN MOVE MAY CONTINUE.

  STRENGTH:-

1. It is in the long term uptrend, but break below 48924 will threaten the long term uptrend.

2. It is well above its most critical points of 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45, please note that it must stay above all these points to keep up the strong up momentum going in the year 2024.

WEAKNESS:-

1. The price action was weak today.

2. It is already into correction mode as it is below its threshold point of 53036.49---- 52834.06 & 52454.47(figure may change), the other important correction threshold point is at 51639.66(figures may change). Please note that break below each point will make the correction deeper.                                                       

3. Some important technical indicators are weak and overbought on the daily/weekly and monthly chart and pointing that it could head down in the coming days/weeks and months.

4. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

5. All the seven important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart now.

6. It is below almost all its short term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for today is between 52488---52391----52311----52265----52261---52073(figure will change every day), sustained break below this range can trigger big down move.

7. It has made lower bottom on the line & bar chart.

8. It is below its pullback threshold point of 51818.20(figure may change). Please note that if it moves above it and sustain on the closing basis then it could possibly move ahead further, else down move may continue..

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 51477 with a stop loss of 51300, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains. 

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 52250---52350 with a stop loss of 52560 or can sell if it moves below 51600 with a stop loss of 51800. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.