A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-22.4.2024.

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open-21861.50-High—22179.55—Low—21777.65--Close-22147 on 19.4.2024.

Support: 22126.80/22124.15/21905.65/ 21883.30/21875.25/21860.65/21834.35/21801.45/21763.95/21750.25/ 21731.40/21727.75/21710.20/ 21593/21530.20/21500.35/ 21448.65/21285.55/21137.20/20976.80/20769.50/20507.75/20291.53/20222.45/19991.85/19875.25/19849.75/19635.30/19333.60/19329.10/19223.65/18973.30/18887.60/18837.85.

Resistance: 22180.70/22234.35/22297.50/22440.90/22452.55/22516/22525.65/22526.60/ 22529.95/ 22623/22730/ 22787/22800/22838/22870/22935/23072/23117/23139/23344.

 (Bold and underlined figures are most important)

After 4 days of fall in a row, it opened on a negative note and below its important support range of 21962---21913 but did not went near its last crucial and important support point of 21710.20 and sharply bounced back from 21777.65 levels and finally ended the day near the high of the day with a gain of 151.15 points. It also closed above its pullback threshold point of 22013.19, which is positive sign and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the up move can extend, else it may start to move down again. Please note that the gap it created on 15.4.2024 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill this gap in the next 1-2 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can move up to 22503.75, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chance of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please keep in mind. The volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months and the down move is on. Please note that other parameters has also weakened further, therefore if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in a shortest possible time and move above some critical levels then it may continue to slide down further it did stage a sharp bounce back today but the other parameters are still weak. So watch out.  It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(weekly gap of 20291.55 is yet to be filled), which please note.

Moving up from here the important resistance points could be at 22224.35-----22283----22287----22297.50----22300----22303.80---22350----22354---22363.12-----22389------22395----22465----22484----22524.24----22526.60-------22529.95----22568-----22576.09---22619----22664.33-----22775.70----22787----22800---22838----22870----22935,(figure may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while. Please note that sustained close above the range of 22287----22300 & 22354 will provide it good strength for continuation of the up move, sustained close above 22526.60 may put it back on the up momentum track and finally sustained close above 22576.09 may somewhat ensure that it could retest its all-time high of 22775.70 or may go beyond it also.

Similarly moving down from here the broad important support points could be at 22126.80---22013.19----21962---21923----21913----21883.30-----21860---21846.37----21801.45----21731.40----21727.75-----21710.20----21530.20---21448.65-----22285.55----21137.20(figures may change), and for in between and other support points please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points. It is already into deep correction mode, break below 22126.80 will be an alert sign but if it manages to hold 22013.19(pullback threshold point) on the closing basis then the chances of up move will be alive, it has very strong support in the range of 21962---21913 therefore it is expected to bounce back from here but sustained break below the range will open up the possibility to drag it down to 21710.20 levels or much below(it tried it today but bounced back), break below the range of 21801.45—21786.47---21731.40----21727.75---21710.20 may jeopardize the up momentum for the year 2024. Please note that the most crucial , key and last important support point is 21710.20 and sustained break below it may accelerate the fall and then the correction could be  deep & painful time and value-wise both.

It is important to mention here that all the five important technical indicators have turned negative today on the daily chart, which is weak sign and indicates further down move may be ahead. Furthermore three important indicators on the weekly and one indicators on the monthly chart is also negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months and the down move is already on. Furthermore on the other parameters such as moving average placement and price action has also weakened as it is below some of the short and medium term moving averages on the daily chart and some below on the weekly chart also after a long time, it has broken recent bottom on the line and bar chart after a long time, therefore all together it is indicating extreme weakness at this point of time and pointing that down move may continue in coming days with in between short relief rallies. It staged a sharp bounce back rally today which seems to be a normal up move after 4 days of massive fall, therefore it has to be seen over next 2-3 days that how today’s up move shape up or may end abruptly. But as long as it holds 22013.19 on the closing basis chances of up move will be alive It is in the long-term uptrend; but gotten into deep short correction mode, therefore both side trades can be tried by the aggressive traders depending on price action but they have to be alert and careful in the long trade at this point of time.

IMPORTANT NOTE: -- TODAYS UP MOVE WAS A NORMAL PULLBACK RALLY AFTER 4 DAYS OF FALL, IT SEEMS THAT THE UP MOVE WAS BECAUSE OF SHORT COVERING AND IT MAY NOT LAST AND CAN END ABRUPTLY, THEREFORE HOW THIS UP MOVE WILL SHAPE UP FURTHER HAS TO BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 TRADING SESSIONS. HOWEVER, SAFE TRADERS CAN TRY LONG TRADE ON DECLINE TILL IT HOLDS 22013.19 ON THE CLOSING BASIS, BUT AGGRESSIVE TRADERS CAN ALSO TRY LONG TRADE NEAR  21923 BUT NOT BELOW IT AND THEN NEAR OR WITHIN THE RANGE OF 21731---21710 BUT NOT BELOW IT.

TRADING TIPS: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 22046---22015 and not below it with a stop loss of 21970. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried near the important support points for pullback gains but with strict stop loss.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it has slipped into deep short correction mode today, therefore short trade can also be attempted on the reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 22290--- 22355 with a stop loss of 22410 or sell below 21970 with a stop loss of 22050 It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com