A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—16.4.2024

 

 

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CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—48057.50--High—48255.50-Low—47725.80---Close—47773.25 on 15.4.2024.

Support: 47588/47481.35/47363.40/47259.85/47191.65/47010.80/46919.70/46892.35/46886.90/46529.05/46507.15/46426.85/46369.50/46310.10/46181.20/45905.85/45828.80/45661.75/45655.50/ 45430.70/44949.90/44633.85/44612/44547.80/44429/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.

Resistance: 47795/48161.25/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95//48292.25/48305.40/48381.95/48636.45/48722/48745/48796/48938/49052/49328/49603/49688/49716/49781/49911/50038/50244/50494/50740.

(Bold and underlined figures are most important)

It opened with a down gap and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a huge loss of 791.30 points. Please note that the gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the in next 4—5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can move up to 48477.55, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chance of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please keep in mind. The volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months and it has been going down for the last two days. Please note that other parameters  has also weakened , therefore if it do not stage a sharp bounce back in next 2—3 trading sessions and move above some critical levels then it may continue to slide down further. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note that eventually it will fill the gap someday(daily gap of 47676 created on 4.4.2024 is yet to be filled), which please note.

It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25 & 48636.45 and to keep up the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it must sustain above these points on the closing basis. Please note that after staying above all the mentioned point for a brief period of 2 days, it slipped and closed well below all the critical points today, which is a very weak sign. Please note that if it does not bounce back above these points in a shortest possible time then it may continue to head down further.   

Moving up from here its broad resistance points could be at 47795-----47853----47965.10----48040.06---48203.45----48292.25----48295.45---48381.95---48481---48636.45-----48637.89----48785----48791.08------48938----49057.40----49328----49603----49688---49716(figures may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally for a while. Please note that sustained close above 48040.06 will give a ray of hope that the up move can extend, sustained close above 48203.45 & 48292.25 will provide it some strength and sustained close above 48363.45 & 48637.89 will put it back on the up momentum track and it will get out of all corrective mode and finally sustained close above 48791.08 may ensure that it could retest its all-time high of 49057.40 or may go beyond it also.

Similarly moving down further from here the broad support points could be at 47730---47635---47481.35----47432----47416.73---47279.80---47010.80---46886.90----46529.05---46507.15---46422---46369.50---46310.40----45828.80---45661.75-----44633.85----44429(Figure may change) and for in between and other support points please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back from any of these points. It has slipped into deep short correction mode for its recent rise as it closed well below its critical and threshold points of 48637.89----48295.45 & 47965.10, sustained break below the range of 47853(already below it) ---47730---47545---47432 may trigger fresh fall, thereafter break below each point will weaken it further and break below 46422 will threaten the long term uptrend, which may please be noted.    

It is important to mention here that four out of five important technical indicators are positive now and one most important indicator has turned negative today on the daily chart, which indicates that the down move may deepen. Furthermore one important indicators on the weekly and two indicators on the monthly chart is also negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months and it has already begun to move down. Furthermore the other parameters such as moving average placement and price action has also weakened as it is below some of the short term moving averages after a long time, therefore it has to be seen for the next 2-3 trading sessions  how it behaves and if it fails to recover fast then down-slide may continue.  It is in the long-term uptrend; but gotten into deep short correction mode, therefore both side trades can be tried by the aggressive traders depending on price action but has to be alert and careful in the long trade at this point of time. For safe traders it is suggested to avoid long trade till visible sign of correction completion emerges.

TRADING TIPS: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 47550 but not below it with a stop loss of 47400. Please note that long trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried near the important support points for pullback gains but with strict stop loss.

2. It is in the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky affair; but it has slipped into deep short correction mode, therefore short trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 47980—48100 with a stop loss of 48260 or sell below 47700 with a stop loss of 47860. It could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

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