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CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—47436.70--High—47609-Low—47316.55---Close—47484.80
on 16.4.2024.
Support: 47481.35/47363.40/47259.85/47191.65/47010.80/46919.70/46892.35/46886.90/46529.05/46507.15/46426.85/46369.50/46310.10/46181.20/45905.85/45828.80/45661.75/45655.50/
45430.70/44949.90/44633.85/44612/44547.80/44429/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance: 47588/47795/48161.25/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95//48292.25/48305.40/48381.95/48636.45/48722/48745/48796/48938/49057.80/49328/49603/49688/49716/49781/49911/50038/50244/50494/50740.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
It opened with a down gap for the 2nd
day in a row and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally
ended the day with a loss of 288.45 points. The last three days fall was sharp
and it shook the technical setup, therefore further fall looks imminent. Please
note that the gap it created today and on 15.4.2024 is still there and
if it makes an effort to fill the 1st gap in next 3—4 trading
sessions and 2nd gap in 4-5 trading sessions, which is
technically possible then it can move up to 47725.80 & 48477.55,
but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chance of
filling the gap will recede for the time being, but eventually it will fill the
gap someday, which please keep in mind. The volatility is continuing which is
not a good sign for a steady market and eventually it can drag it down in
coming days/weeks & months and the down move is on. Please note that other
parameters has also weakened further,
therefore if it does not stage a sharp bounce back in the next 1-2
trading sessions and move above some critical levels then it may continue to
slide down further. It is important to mention here that the gap filling threat
for earlier gap on the daily & weekly chart has faded out but please note
that eventually it will fill the gap someday(daily gap of 47676 created on
4.4.2024 is yet to be filled), which please note.
It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25
& 48636.45 and to keep the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it must
sustain above these points on the closing basis. Please note that it is
well below these points now, which is a very weak sign and to get back on the
up momentum track again it has to bounce back above these points and sustain on
the closing basis, else it may sideways or drift down.
Moving up from here its broad resistance
points could be at 47727.39----47635---47708---47795-----47858----47965.10-----48203.45----48292.25----48295.45---48381.95---48481---48636.45-----48637.89----48709.23----48785-------48938----49057.40----49328----49603----49688---49716(figures
may change) and for in between and other resistance points please
refer the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at
any of these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up
rally for a while. Please note that sustained close above 47727.39 will give
a ray of hope that the pullback up move can extend, sustained close above 47858
will slightly strengthen it, sustained close above 48203.45 & 48292.25
will provide it good strength and sustained close above 48363.45 &
48637.89 will put it back on the up momentum track and it will get out of
all corrective mode and finally sustained close above 48709.23 may somewhat
ensure that it could retest its all-time high of 49057.40 or may go
beyond it also.
Similarly moving down further from here the
broad support points could be at 47467---47481.35----47416.73---47279.80---47010.80---46886.90----46529.05---46507.15---46439---46369.50---46310.40----45828.80---45661.75-----44633.85----44429(Figure may change) and for in between and other support points
please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back
from any of these points. It has slipped into deep short correction mode for
its recent rise as it closed well below its critical and threshold points of 48637.89----48295.45
& 47965.10, sustained break below the range of 47858---47708(already below it)
---47467---47279.80 may trigger fresh fall,
thereafter break below each point will weaken it further and break below 46439
will threaten the long term uptrend, which may please be noted.
It is important to mention here that only one
out of five important technical indicators is positive now and four most
important indicator has turned negative today on the daily chart, which is a
hugely weak sign and indicates that the down move may deepen. Furthermore one
important indicators on the weekly and two indicators on the monthly chart is
also negative pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months and the
down move is already on. Furthermore on the other parameters such as moving
average placement and price action has also weakened as it is below some of the
short term moving averages after a long time, it has broken recent bottom on
the line chart after a long time, therefore all together it indicating extreme
weakness at this point of time and pointing that down move may continue in
coming days with in between short relief rallies. However, if it stages a sharp
bounce back in a shortest possible time and move above some of its important
points as mentioned above then the chances of up could be there, else down move
may continue. It is in the long-term
uptrend; but gotten into deep short correction mode, therefore both side trades
can be tried by the aggressive traders depending on price action but one has to
be alert and careful in the long trade at this point of time. For safe traders
it is suggested to avoid long trade till visible sign of correction completion
emerges.
IMPORTANT NOTE: -- AFTER
3 DAYS OF SHARP FALL CHANCE OF AN UP RALLY COULD BE THERE ON 18.4.2024 BUT IF
IT OPENS WITH A DOWN GAP THAT IS BELOW 47316.55 THEN IT IS VERY MUCH LIKELY TO
HAVE A PULLBACK UP MOVE. BUT FOR SAFE TRADERS IT IS SUGGESTED TO TRY LONG TRADE
ONCE IT CLOSES ABOVE 47727.39(FIGURE MAY CHAGE) AND SUSTAIN.FOR SAFE TRADERS IT
IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET AS OF NOW.
TRADING TIPS: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or
within the range of 47280----47200 but not below it with a stop
loss of 47080 or if it moves above 47558 and maintain for some time
with a stop loss of 47380. Please note that long trade in a
corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried near the important
support points for pullback gains but with strict stop loss.
2. It is in
the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky
affair; but it has slipped into deep short correction mode, therefore short
trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for
intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can
be tried on the rise near or within the range of 47750—47800 with a stop
loss of 47900 or sell below 47190 with a stop loss of 47350. It
could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade
and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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