2 2 2 2
CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—46744.95--High—47668.70-Low—46579.05---Close—47574.15
on 19.4.2024.
Support: 47481.35/47363.40/47259.85/47191.65/47010.80/46919.70/46892.35/46886.90/46529.05/46507.15/46426.85/46369.50/46310.10/46181.20/45905.85/45828.80/45661.75/45655.50/
45430.70/44949.90/44633.85/44612/44547.80/44429/43830.75/43796.75/43600.35/43345.95/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance: 47588/47795/48161.25/48166.15/48203.45/48219.95//48292.25/48305.40/48381.95/48636.45/48722/48745/48796/48938/49057.80/49328/49603/49688/49716/49781/49911/50038/50244/50494/50740.
(Bold and underlined
figures are most important)
After 4 days of strait fall it opened on
a negative note today and went down further but as expected it sharply bounced
back from its most important support range of 46591---46475 & 46458 and finally ended the day near the high of the
day with a gain of 504.70 points. It also closed above its pullback threshold point of 47163.94,
which is positive sign and if it sustains above it on the closing basis then
the up move can extend, else it may start to move down again. Please note that the
gap it created on 15.4.2024 is still there and if it makes an effort to
fill this gap in the next 1-2 trading sessions, which is technically possible
then it can move up to 48477.55, but if it fails to fill the gap within
the stipulated time then the chance of filling the gap will recede for the time
being, but eventually it will fill the gap someday, which please keep in mind.
The volatility is continuing which is not a good sign for a steady market and
eventually it can drag it down in coming days/weeks & months and the down
move is on. Please note that other parameters
has also weakened , therefore if it does not stage a sharp bounce back
in a shortest possible time and move above some critical levels then it may
continue to slide down further, it did stage a sharp bounce back today but the
other parameters are still weak. So watch out.
It is important to mention here that its critical & important points are 48203.45---48292.25
& 48636.45 and to keep the up momentum going on in the year 2024 it must
sustain above these points on the closing basis. Please note that it is
well below these points now, which is a very weak sign and to get back on the strong
up momentum track again it has to bounce back above these points and sustain on
the closing basis, else it may drift
down eventually.
Moving up from here its broad resistance
points could be at 47635----47647----47795-----47820----47965.10-----48110.67----48203.45----48292.25----48295.45---48381.95---48481---48561.13----48636.45-----48637.89-----48785-------48938----49057.40----49328----49603----49688---49716(figures
may change) and for in between and other resistance points please refer
the resistance table at the top. Please note that it may correct at any of
these points and then may resume the up move again or may exhaust the up rally
for a while. It is into deep corrective mode now. Please note that sustained close
above the range of 47540---47640----47835 will strengthen it for
continuation of the up move, sustained close above 48203.45 & 48292.25
will provide it good strength and sustained close above 48636.45 &
48637.89 will put it back on the strong up momentum track and it will get
out of all corrective mode and in all likelihood it could retest its all-time
high of 49057.40 or may go beyond it also.
Similarly moving down further from here the
broad support points could be at 47491----47481.35-----47471.91----47416.73---47279.80---47163.94---47062----47010.80---46886.90----46591-----46529.05---46507.15---46475-----46458---46369.50---46310.40----45828.80---45661.75-----45322---44633.85----44429(Figure may change) and for in between and other support points
please refer the support table at the top. Please note that it may bounce back
from any of these points. It is already into deep correction mode for its
recent rise, but if it manages to hold 47163.94(pullback threshold point)
on the closing basis then the chances of up move will be alive, sustained break
below 46475 will indicate that it could drag it down to 45828.80 levels
and will threaten the long term uptrend also, sustained break below 46369.50 & 46310.40 may trigger fresh fall, sustained break below
45828.80 will indicate that the correction could be much deeper and can
last longer and finally break below 45322
may jeopardize the long term uptrend and it could head for bigger fall and
thereafter break below each point will weaken it further, which may please be
noted. Please note that the most crucial, key and
last important support point is 45828.80 and sustained break below it may
accelerate the fall and then the correction could be deep & painful time and value-wise both.
It is important to mention here all the five
important technical indicators are negative on the daily chart, which is a weak
sign and indicates that the down move may continue and deepen in coming days. Furthermore
two important indicators on the weekly and monthly chart is also negative
pointing that it could head down in coming weeks/months and the down move is
already on. Furthermore on the other
parameters such as moving average placement and price action has also weakened
as it is below some of the short and medium term moving averages on the daily
chart and some below on the weekly chart also after a long time, it has broken
recent bottom on the line and bar chart after a long time, therefore all
together it indicates extreme weakness at this point of time and pointing that
the down move may continue in coming days with in between short relief rallies.
It staged a sharp bounce back rally today which seems to be a normal up move
after 4 days of massive fall, therefore it has to be seen over next 2-3
days that how today’s up move shape up or may end abruptly. But as long as it
holds 47163.94 on the closing basis chances of up move will be alive. It
is in the long-term uptrend; but gotten into deep short correction mode,
therefore both side trades can be tried by the aggressive traders depending on price
action but one has to be alert and careful in the long trade at this point of time.
IMPORTANT NOTE: -- TODAYS
UP MOVE WAS A NORMAL PULLBACK RALLY AFTER 4 DAYS OF FALL, IT SEEMS THAT THE UP
MOVE WAS BECAUSE OF SHORT COVERING AND IT MAY NOT LAST AND CAN END ABRUPTLY, THEREFORE
HOW THIS UP MOVE WILL SHAPE UP FURTHER HAS TO BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 TRADING
SESSIONS. HOWEVER, SAFE TRADERS CAN TRY LONG TRADE ON DECLINE TILL IT HOLDS
47163.94 ON THE CLOSING BASIS, BUT AGGRESSIVE TRADERS CAN ALSO TRY LONG TRADE
NEAR 46475 AND THEN NEAR 45830 BUT NOT BELOW IT.
TRADING TIPS: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 47165
but not below it with a stop loss of 47000. Please note that long
trade in a corrective mode could be a risky affair but can be tried near the
important support points for pullback gains but with strict stop loss.
2. It is in
the long term uptrend therefore short trade in general could be a highly risky
affair; but it has slipped into deep short correction mode, therefore short
trade can also be attempted on reasonable rise or on price breakdown for
intraday corrective gains but with extreme caution and alert. Short trade can
be tried on the rise near or within the range of 47850—47950 with a stop
loss of 48100 or sell below 47000 with a stop loss of 47180. It
could be a risky trade but worth trying for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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