A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-14.7.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—25255.50—High—25322.45---Low---25129---Close---25149.85 on 11.7.2025.

Support:25136.20/25116.25/25079.20/25892.60/24857.75/24854.80/24792.30/24753.15/24694.35/24589.15/24537.60/24498.20/24494.45/24472.80/24354.55/24198.75/24141.80/24099.70/24094.20/24073.90/23938.85/23893.70/23873.35/23869.65/23847.45/23816.15/23807.30/23667.20/23664/23644.80/23637.65/23484.15/23537/23426.30/23391.65/23338.70/23263.15/23110.80/23049.95/23047.25/22976.85/22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:25222.40/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25371/25517.05/25551.35/25669.35/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened with a down gap and thereafter had both side moves in a short range during the day and finally, ended the day with a loss of 205.40 points. The gap it created today is still there and if it makes an effort to fill this gap in the next 4-5 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 25340.45, but if it fails to fill the gap in the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for now but it will fill the gap one day for sure. It is also important to mention here that it that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 24164, 22923, 22468 & 22254) also on the downside/upside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup has weakened quite a lot, it was already into short correction mode but today it slipped into medium correction mode for its recent rise, it fell below all its short term moving averages on the daily chart after a long time and making lower top & bottom on the line chart and most importantly it is below its critical point of 25371 and to top it all almost all the important technical indicators are negative, therefore all together it is giving weak indication and if it does not move above its short term averages, above its critical point of 25371  and reverse the process by making higher top & bottom in the next 2-3 trading sessions, then further fall looks  inevitable in coming days. Please note that it will gain good strength for the continuation of the up-move only once it moves above the range of 25518---25552 and sustain on the closing basis. Since it has broken all its recent key support levels, therefore now it will find crucial support at its make or break bottom at 24753.15(for in between support points refer to the table on the upside), it could be the strong bounce back support point, but break & sustained close below it may derail it from the up- momentum track and it may witness an accelerated fall.

Moving down further it will find support at 24742.88----24494----24462----24227(some figure may change), it can bounce back from any of these points, but break & sustained close below 24742.88 will push it into deep correction mode and will be a trigger point for going down , break & sustained close below the range of  24494----24462 will be a potential trigger point  for going down further and finally break & sustained close below  24227  will threaten the long term uptrend and may drag it down further, moving down  it will find its most important & critical support in the range of  23893.70----23869.65—23807.30 , it is a very strong bounce back support range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up-move will be good, but break & sustained close below this range may trigger fresh fall and may end the hope of a continued up-move and then comes its most critical  support point of 23644.80 & 23637.65, please note that to keep the hope alive for a good up-move in the year 2025 it has to stay above these points on the closing basis, else it may witness an accelerated fall. It is in the long term uptrend , but into short & medium term correction mode now.

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 25239.36---25260.22----25272---25266---25371----25387.01----25448.47---25496.48—25517---25552----25670----25761----25778---25863---25996----26277.35. It can correct at any of these points and then may resume the up- move again or rally may fizzle out for a while also. Please note that if it moves above the range of 25239.36----25371----25496.48 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of corrective mode and may resume the up-move again, but sustained close above 25371 will raise hope of extending the up-move, but it will gain strength for the continuation of the up-move if it moves above the range of 25517---25552 and sustain on the closing basis and finally if it moves above 25670and sustain on the closing basis then it will get back into the strong up-momentum track again. It is in the long term uptrend, but in short term correction mode now.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It is making lower top & bottom on the line chart, furthermore it is below all its short term moving averages on the daily chart but above all on the weekly & monthly chart, it is above all its medium & long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart which is a positive sign for the continuation of the up-move. But almost all the important technical indicators are negative now on the daily chart and majority are in the sell mode such as MACD,EV, ST, PS VM &  RSI with negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone, but only ADX is in the buy mode, so it can have relief rally at time but there is a high probability of a correction anytime soon and it is already into correction mode, so in totality as of now it is giving mixed signal therefore at times it may swing both ways but with slight tilt towards downside . Furthermore please note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days, so it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments at this juncture. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly chart important indicators such as MACD/ ADX/ PS &EV are in the buy mode, but it is in the deep overbought zone and RSI has negative divergence, so it can correct at times, but overall looks good for extension of the up-move. On the monthly chart it is in overbought zone and with huge negative divergence and  MACD is in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be  on the horizon in coming   months.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE  MARKET  NOW;-

It slipped into correction mode again therefore for aggressive traders it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 25371 and for safe traders till it closes above 25552 and sustain on the closing basis. But long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday gains.

STRENGTH:-

1. It is above its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 24128 & 22481 for the month of July-2025, these are the very strong support point.

2. It is above its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will start to drift down.

3. It is above its most critical first & second make or break bottom of 24753.15 & 23893.70 sustained close above it will help to extend the up-move.

4. It is only above its deep correction threshold points of 24742.88(figure may change), if it sustains above it, it is a positive sign for moving up.

5 It is way above its top long-term moving averages which is placed at 24227 (figure will change every day) for the day, close below this point would be a weak sign.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. RSI is with negative divergence and VM, MACD, EV & ST is in the sell mode and it is in the overbought zone, so, it can correct at times and it is into correction mode now.

3. It is making lower top & bottom on the line chart, which is a very weak sign.

4. It is into short & medium term correction mode for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold point of 25496.48---25448.47---25387.01---25260.22----25239.36 (figure may change), sustained close below these points may drag it down further.

5. It fell below its most critical point of 25371 and if it sustains below it on the closing basis then it will dampen the chances of retesting its all-time high of 26277.35.

6. It is below all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 25435---25397----25371----25363---25272---25266(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may drag it down lower.

7. The price action was negative today.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near 25129 if it holds this point for some time then only, but not below it with a stop loss of 25060, for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 25260---25290 with a stop loss of 25350 or can sell if it moves below 25128 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 25190. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com