CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—56709.20---High—57134.95--Low—56707.80---Close—56006.65 on 15.7.2025.
Support:56623.60/56161.40/56098.70/55957.75/55695/55475.45//55149.30/54576.60/54467.35/54442.30/54176.45/53888.30/53483.05/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40.
Resistance:57049.50/57312.75/57375.80/57566/57628.40/57683/57755/58000/58224/58316/58479/58950.
OVERALL, VIEW: --
It opened on a negative note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day flat with a small gain of 241.30 points. It is important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 56233.55,54054.80, 51361, 51244 & 50496) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, and is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup looks is still slightly weak but had improved performance today, but it is still into short correction mode for its recent rise, it has lower top & bottoms on the bar chart and lower bottom on the line chart. But it has bounced back above all its moving average and this is comforting and if it sustains above it then the up move can extend. But to top it all almost all the important technical indicators are negative, therefore all together it is still giving weak indication and if it does not get out of corrective mode and moves above critical points in the next 1-2 trading sessions then further fall looks inevitable in coming days. Please note that it will get good strength for the continuation of the up-move only once it moves above the range 57312.75---57375.80 and sustain on the closing basis. However moving down it may find support in the range of 56962---56908.08---56797----56759----56714----56650.10----56098.70(some figures may change daily) it is a good bounce back range, but break & sustained close below the range of 56962-----56650.10 (it bounced from this range today also) will push it into medium & deep correction mode for its recent rise and may trigger fresh fall and break & sustained close below 56098.70 may witness an accelerated fall and then moving down further its most critical support points or range could be, 55629.14----55285.91-----54467.35( some figures may change), which is yet again a very strong and important bounce back points or range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up move will still be faintly alive. But break & sustained close below the range of 55629.14----55285.91 will push it into medium and deep correction mode for its earlier rise and break & sustained close below 54467.35 will dampen the chances of up-move in the year 2025.
Moving up the broad resistance points could be at 57043.33----57049.50----57189.04---57313----57376-----57566---57629----57683---57725----57755---57850----57930----58000(for complete resistance points see the table on the upside) it may correct at any of these
points and then may resume the up-move again or may pause the rally for a while.
Please note that if it moves above the range of 57043.33-----57189.04 and sustain on
the closing basis then, it will get out of corrective mode and may make an
effort to extend the up-move, if it moves above the range of 57313—57376 and
sustain on the closing basis then it will gain good strength for the
continuation of the up-move and finally if it moves above 57629
and sustain on the closing
basis then it will get back into strong up-momentum track. It is in a strong long
term uptrend now, but slipped into short correction mode today.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It has made lower bottom on the line chart & lower
top & bottom on the bar chart, but it is above all its short, medium &
long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart which is a
positive sign for the continuation of the up-move. But almost all the important technical indicators are
negative now and majority of them are in the sell mode now such as MACD, EV,
PS, ST, VM and RSI with negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone,
but only ADX is in the buy mode, so it can have relief rally at time but there
is a high probability of a correction anytime soon and it is already into
correction mode, so in totality as of
now it is giving mixed
signal therefore at times it may
swing both ways but with slight tilt towards downside as of now . Furthermore
please note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in
the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore
further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days, so it is suggested to be
extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments at this juncture.
Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price
action for further directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
On the weekly chart major important indicators are positive such as MACD, PS,ST, ADX & EV are in the buy mode, RSI with negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone ,which is a concern, so it can correct at times, but overall looks good for the up-move. On the monthly chart few indicators are in buy mode such as MACD, ST, PS & ADX, but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly chart more or less seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart huge negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone, which is a deep concern, therefore chances are that it can sharply go down in coming months.
IT IS SELL ON THE RISE MARKET
NOW;-
It is into correction mode therefore for aggressive traders it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 57050 and sustains and for safe traders till it closes above 57376 and sustain on the closing basis. But long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. It is way
above its most crucial bottom of 55149.30& 53483.05, if it sustains above it on the closing basis
then the chances of the up-move will be alive.
2. It is above
all its long-term moving averages and the top average is placed at 53481(figure
will change every day). Close below this point will be a warning signal.
3 It is
above few of its correction threshold point of 56908.08---56650.10----55629.14
& 55285.91 (figure may change) sustained close above these points could be a
strong hope for moving up further.
4 It is way above
its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay
above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it
may drift down.
5. It is above its long
term rising trend-line which is placed at 54556 &50016 for the month of
July—2025.
6. It is above
all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important
average range for day is between 56972--56963--56958---56934---56797---56759(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to extend the up move.
7. The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. Almost
all the important indicators are negative now and majority are in sell mode
such as MACD, EV, PS, ST, VM and RSI is with negative divergence and it is
in the overbought zone, so, it can correct at times, it is already into
correction mode.
3. It is into short term correction mode for its recent rise as it is below its threshold points of 57189.04---57043.33 (figure may change), sustained close below these points may drag it down further.
4. It has made lower
bottom on the line chart & lower top and bottom on the bar chart.
TRADING CALL: --
1. Safe
traders should avoid long trade till it closes above 57375.80 and
sustain. But aggressive traders can try long trade on decline near or within
the range of 56900---56800 if it holds this range for some time but not
below it with a stop loss of 56700 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that
long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be tried
near critical support points for intraday gains.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 57320—57380 with
a stop loss of 57480 or can sell if it moves below 56700
and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 56820. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for
intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Thank you for sharing your views.