A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-BANK NIFTY—15.7.2025

 

CNX-BANK NIFTY

Open—56780.75---High—56896.30--Low—56594.25---Close—56765.35 on 14.7.2025.

 

Support:56623.60/56161.40/56098.70/55957.75/55695/55475.45//55149.30/54576.60/54467.35/54442.30/54176.45/53888.30/53483.05/53357.70/52794.95/52782.75/52760.20/52577.50/52493.95/52354.85/51979.75/51749.45/51749.45/51693.50/51138.90/51133.20/51000.90/50947.70/50860.20/50841.90/50641.75/50438.30/50382.10/50369.40/50194.30/49974.75/49904.40/49836.10/49787.10/49688.80/49654.65/49459/49300/49162.65/49057.40/48972.55/48906.05/48839.10/48734.35/48636.45/48525.60/48292.25/48203.45/48161.75/48074.05/47898.35/47844.15/47702.90/47363.40/46983.75/46077.85/45828.80/45661.75/44633.85/44429/43600.25/43345.45/43230.95/42582.20/42105.40. 

Resistance:57049.50/57312.75/57375.80/57566/57628.40/57683/57755/58000/58224/58316/58479/58950.

OVERALL, VIEW: --

It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally, ended the day flat with a small gain of 10.65 points. It is important to mention here that it still has earlier unfilled gaps (gap points are 56233.55,54054.80, 51361, 51244 & 50496) also on the downside, which is still a huge concern, although stipulated time for filling the gap is over long ago, but it will fill the gap one day for sure. So, be cautious. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, and is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup looks slightly weak as of now, as it is into short & medium  correction mode for its recent rise, it also fell below most of its short term moving averages on the daily chart after a long time and made lower top & bottoms on the bar chart and lower bottom on the line chart, and to top it all almost all the important technical indicators are negative, therefore all together it is giving weak indication and if it does not get out of corrective mode and bounce back above the averages  and some critical points in the next 2-3 trading sessions then further fall looks inevitable in coming days. Please note that it will get good strength for the continuation of the up-move only once it moves above the range 57312.75---57375.80 and sustain on the closing basis. However moving down it may find support in the range of 56733----56730----56650.10----56631----56098.70(some figures may change daily) it is a good bounce back range, but break & sustained close below the range of 56733-----56631(it breached this range intraday today but closed just above it -weak indication) will push it into medium & deep correction mode for its recent rise and  may trigger fresh fall and break & sustained close below 56098.70 may witness an accelerated fall and then moving down further  its most critical support points or range could be, 55629.14----55285.91-----54467.35( some figures may change), which is yet again a very strong and important bounce back points or range and if it holds this range then the chances of resuming the up move will still be faintly alive. But break & sustained close below the range of 55629.14----55285.91 will push it into medium and deep correction mode for its earlier rise and break & sustained close below 54467.35 will dampen the chances of up-move in the year 2025.

Moving up the broad resistance points could be at 56908.08---56938---57043.33----57049.50----57189.04---57313----57376-----57566---57629----57683---57725----57755---57850----57930----58000(for complete resistance points see the table on the upside) it may correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move again or may pause the rally for a while. Please note that if it moves above the range of 56908.08-----57189.04 and sustain on the closing basis then, it will get out of corrective mode, if it moves above the range of 57313—57376 and sustain on the closing basis then it will gain good strength for the continuation of the up-move and finally if it moves above 57629 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get back into strong up-momentum track. It is in a strong long term uptrend now, but slipped into short correction mode today.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has made lower bottom on the line chart & lower top & bottom on the bar chart, it is also below majority of its short term moving averages after a long time, however it is still above few short term averages on the daily chart & above all on the weekly & monthly chart, it is above all its medium & long term moving averages on the daily, weekly & monthly chart which is a positive sign for the continuation of the up-move. But almost all the important technical indicators are negative now and majority of them are in the sell mode now such as MACD, EV, PS,ST, VM and RSI with negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone, but only ADX is in the buy mode, so it can have relief rally at time but there is a high probability of a correction anytime soon and it is already into correction mode, so in totality as of now it is giving mixed signal therefore at times it may swing both ways but with slight tilt towards downside as of now . Furthermore please note that earlier vertical rise, unfilled gaps, negative divergence and in the overbought zone on weekly & monthly chart is still a concern, therefore further fall cannot be ruled out in coming days, so it is suggested to be extremely alert and cautious in your long trade commitments at this juncture. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -

On the weekly chart major important indicators are positive such as MACD, PS,ST, ADX & EV are in the buy mode,  RSI with negative divergence  and it is in the overbought zone ,which is a concern, so it can correct at times, but overall looks good for the up-move. On the monthly chart few indicators are in buy mode such as MACD, ST, PS & ADX, but it is in the overbought zone and with huge negative divergence in RSI. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly & monthly  chart more or less seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart huge negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone, which is a deep concern, therefore chances are that it can sharply go down in coming months.

IT IS SELL ON THE RISE  MARKET  NOW;-

It is into correction mode therefore for aggressive traders it is sell on the rise market now till it closes above 57050 and sustains and for safe traders till it closes above 57376 and sustain on the closing basis. But long trade can also be tried on the decline near critical support points or range with strict stop losses, for intraday gains.

STRENGTH: -

1. It is way above its most crucial bottom of 55149.30& 53483.05, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the up-move will be alive.

2. It is above all its long-term moving averages and the top average is placed at 53436(figure will change every day). Close below this point will be a warning signal.

3 It is above few of its correction threshold point of 56650.10----55629.14 & 55285.91 (figure may change) sustained close above these points could be a strong hope for moving up further.

4 It is way above its most critical point of 54467.35, please note that it is essential to stay above this point to keep the up-momentum going in the year-2025, else it may drift down.

5. It is above its long term rising trend-line which is placed at 54556 &50016 for the month of July—2025.

6. It is above half of its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 57018--56961--56938---56919---56733---56732(figure will change every day), sustained close above this range can help it to extend the up move.

WEAKNESS: -

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. Almost all the important indicators are negative now and majority are in sell mode such as MACD, EV, PS, ST, VM and RSI is with negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone, so, it can correct at times, it is already into correction mode.

3. It is into short & medium correction mode for its recent rise as it closed below its threshold points of 57189.04---57043.33---56908.08 (figure may change), sustained close below these points may drag it down further.

4. It has made lower bottom on the line chart & lower top and bottom on the bar chart.

5. The price action was negative today.

TRADING CALL: -- 

1. Safe traders should avoid long trade till it closes above 57375.80 and sustain. But aggressive traders can try long trade near or within the range of 56733---56650 if it holds this range for some time but not below it with a stop loss of 56550 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky affair, but can be tried near critical support points for intraday gains.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 56900—56980 with a stop loss of 57100 or can sell if it moves below 56600 and maintain for some time then with a stop loss of 56800.  It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Email—suranank@gmail.com

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.