A TECHNICAL UPDATE ON CNX-NIFTY-15.4.2025

 

CNX-NIFTY

Open—22695.40—High—22923.90---Low---22695.40---Close---22828.55 on 11.4.2025.

Support:22794.70/22786.90/22775.70/22768.40/22676.75/22625.30/22577.40/22546/22525.65/22502/22314.70/22303.80/22281/22165/22124.70/22104.85/21964.60/21875.25/21860.65/21821.05/21777.65/21710.20/21530.20/21448.65/21281.45/21137.20/21021.88/20976.80/20769.50/20291.50/20222.45/19991.85/19839/19333.60.

Resistance:22976.85/23047.25/23049.95/23110.80/23263.15/23338.70/23391.65/23426.30/23484.15/23537/23637.65/23644.80/23664/23667.20/23807.30/23816.15/23873.35/23893.70/23938.85/24073.90/24094.20/24099.70/24141.80/24354.55/24472.80/24498.20/24537.60/24694.35/24753.15/24792.3024854.80/24857.75/25078.30/25234.05/25285.55/25333.65/25445.70/25871.35/26277.35/26328/26995/27095/27212/27293/27381.

OVERALL VIEW ON THE DAILY CHART: --

It opened with an up gap and the open was the low also for the day and thereafter it moved up during the day and finally ended the day, with a gain of 429.40 points. Please note that it has filled the gap it created on 7.4.2025 today, the gap point was 22858. But the gap it created today and on 8.4.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the respective gap in the next 4—5 & 3---4 days trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come down to 22468 & 22254, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.

The technical setup has improved a bit but still very weak,  as  it is  into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise and long term uptrend is severely threatened as it is way below its all the long term moving averages on the daily chart. But the good thing is that it has made higher top & bottom on the line chart and most importantly bounced back and closed above its  most crucial make or break range of 22702---22800 , if it sustain above this range on the closing basis then the up-move is likely to extend further, but break and sustained close below this range will  trigger fall again. Moving down it will find support at 22281 & 22165 and then in the range of 21964----21821---21777---21743---21710---21530 it could bounce back from any point of this range, but break and sustained close below this range  on the closing basis or even if it stays below 22281 & 22165 on the closing basis  for a longer period of time then it can most likely to  slide  down to 21281--- 21137—21021 and this could be the ultimate bounce back range, but if it moves below 21021(most important point) and sustain on the closing basis then it will get into the confirmed bear market territory and if it stays longer below it then it may seek much lower levels, which may please be noted.

Moving up the key resistance points could be at 23245---23361----23420.02----23484----23502.64----23546----23637.65---23644.80-----23668-----23797----23893.70----23938----24056----24190(some figures may change daily). If it moves above 23245 and sustain on the closing basis then it will raise the hope of extending the up-move further, if it moves above 23420.02 & 23502.64 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get out of recent correction mode and may extend the up-move. But please note that  it has to move above 23637.65 & 23644.80 and sustain on the closing basis to keep the hope alive of a good up-move in the year 2025, if it move above 23893.70 and sustain on the closing basis then it will get a good foothold to build the strong up-move base and then the up move is likely to extend further for sure and if it moves above the range of 23938----24056----24190 and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will dissipate and it may somewhat ensure that up-move can extend further for sure. Moving up further the broad resistance points could be at 24280----24630---24753.15---24858----25260---25415, it could correct at any of these points and then the rally may resume or can fizzle out also, but if it moves above 24753.15 and sustain on the closing basis then it may get into strong up-momentum track and if it moves above 25415 and sustain on the closing basis then it could retest its ultimate top of 26277.35 or may go beyond it.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-

It has higher top & bottom on the line chart, it is almost below all its short term moving average on the daily, below all on the weekly and below mostly on the monthly chart, it is almost below all its medium term moving average on the daily & below few on the weekly chart, and most importantly it is way below all its long term moving average on the daily chart, which is a severe threat to the long term uptrend and it is highly concerning as of now. Furthermore almost all the important indicators are negative now and in the sell mode, and in the overbought zone. So, all together it is showing weak sign as of now, therefore, fear of going down further is distinctly there may be with short relief rallies at times. Please keep an eye on the critical resistance & support points and price action for the further directional indication.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART:-

On the weekly important indicators such as MACD, ADX & PS is in the sell mode and in the overbought zone also, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ oversold zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods and further fall may be  on the horizon in coming weeks or  months.

IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET  AS OF NOW;-

It is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise, but it is below its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds the range of 22800--22700 and then 22281—22165 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after reasonable rise or near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.

STRENGTH:-

1. It has moved above its critical or make or break range of 22702---22800, which is a positive sign.

2. It is above its short pullback threshold point for its recent fall 22245 (figure may change), sustained close above it may give some hope to move up-further.

3. It has made higher top & bottom on the line chart.

4. It is above its medium & long pullback threshold point for its earlier fall 22479 & 22814 (figure may change), sustained close above it may help it to extend the an up-move.

5. The price action was positive today.

WEAKNESS: -.

1. Volatility and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.

2. All the important indicators are negative now on the daily chart and majorly in the sell mode and in the overbought zone.

3. It is below its most critical points of 23637.65 & 23644.80, please note that it must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025, else it will drift down.

4. It is below its recent short & deep correction threshold point of 23502.64 & 23420.02(figure may change), sustained close below these points will help it to slide down further.

5. The long-term uptrend is still in jeopardy as it is way below all its long-term moving averages and the whole range is 24190---23245 (figure will change every day) for the day. Please note that sustained close below 23245 may drag it down further.

6. It is below its major long term rising trend line which is placed at 23305 for the month of April-2025, it is a very weak sign.

9. It is below almost all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the important average range for day is between 23009----22999----22969----22908---22834---22771(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may accelerate the down move.

TRADING CALL: --

1. Long trade can be tried on decline near or within the range of 22800---22760 but not below it with a stop loss of 22680 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.

2. Short trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 23000---23050 with a stop loss of 23120 or can sell if it moves below 22680 and maintain for some time with a stop loss of 22815. It could be a risky trade but can be tried for intraday corrective gains.

NOTE: - If it opens up with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any case.

Disclaimer:-The view expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.

Kindly note that make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS. 

Note: Price stated here are of spot market. 

Thanks 

Narendra Kumar Surana

Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.

Email--- suranank@gmail.com