CNX-BANK NIFTY
Open—50388.55---High—50793.70---Low—50030.80---Close—50511 on 8.4.2025.
Resistance:50641.75/50841.90/50860.20/50947.70/51000.90/51133.20/51138.90/51693.50/51749.45/51749.45/51979.75/52354.85/52493.95/52577.50/52760.20/52782.75/52794.95/53357.70/53531.30/53792.85/53888.30/54247.70/54467.35/54593/54604/54772/54815/54924/55097/55209/55444/55646/55740/55827/56135/56255.
OVERALL,
VIEW: --
It opened on a positive note and thereafter had both side moves during the day and finally ended the day with a gain of 650.90 points. The gap it created on 7.4.2025 is still there and if it makes an effort to fill the gap in next 3—4 trading sessions, which is technically possible then it can come up to 51361, but if it fails to fill the gap within the stipulated time then the chances of filling the gap will recede for the time being, but one day it will fill the gap for sure. Please note that it is often exhibiting volatility, which is not a good sign for a steady market.
The technical setup is still weak as it is into deep correction mode for its earlier & recent rise and the long term uptrend is threatened as it is below most of its long term moving averages. But the good thing is that it has moved above its critical bottom of 50369.40, which is a positive sign for moving up further, but break & sustained close below it will weaken the setup. However, if it manages to hold its recent fall pullback threshold point of 49843(figure may change), its last long term moving average which is placed at 49707(figure will change daily) and its next critical or make or break bottom of 49654.65 then the hope of moving up will be alive, but break & sustained close below these points may accelerate the fall and the up move may end for a while and it will also put the long term uptrend in potential danger. Moving down further broad support points could be at 49368---49300---49163---48731---48574, it could bounce back from any of these points, but break and sustained close below 48574 can drag it down to the range of 47756---47745---47702, this is a very strong bounce back range, but break & sustained close below this range can take it down further to the range of 46437---46077 and sustained close below this range can drag it down to 44500 levels or lower, which may please be noted.
Similarly moving up the broad resistance points could be at 50548----50707----50841.90----50860.20----50863----51023----51350-----51526---51752----51800
(some figures may change daily), it
can correct at any of these points, but if it moves above 50369.40 and sustain on the closing basis then it can move-up
further, but to keep the hope of up-move alive in the Year-2025 it has to move above 50841.90
& 50860.20 and sustain on the closing basis else it may start to drift
down again, if it moves above the range of 50863----51023----51350
and sustain on the closing basis then the long term uptrend threat will
dissipate and it is likely to extend the up-move for sure, if it moves above 51800 and sustain on the closing basis
then it could retest its recent high of 52063.95
or may go beyond it also. Please note that if it sustains above 52063.95 on the closing basis then the next broad resistance or
target points could be at 52429----52652----52871---53888----53114.46,
it could correct at any of these points and then may resume the up-move or
rally can fizzle out also, but if it moves above 52652 & 53114.46 and sustain on the closing basis then it could
retest one of its top of 53888.30
and its ultimate top of 54467.35 or may go beyond it also.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
PLACEMENT ON THE DAILY CHART;-
It has made lower top & bottom on the bar chart &
lower bottom on the line chart, but it is below most of its short moving
average on the daily chart & above all on the weekly & mostly above on
the monthly chart, it is mostly below its medium term moving average on the
daily & weekly and most importantly it is below more than half of all its
long term moving average on the daily chart, which is concerning. Furthermore most of all the important
technical indicators have turned negative today and in the sell mode and also in the overbought zone, so, it may correct further , provided it
does not sustain above its crucial support point as mentioned in the above
paragraph. Therefore in totality it is emitting mixed signal now but slightly tilted towards down side as
of now. So, please keep an eye on the
critical resistance & support points and price action for further
directional indication.
TECHNICAL
INDICATORS PLACEMENT ON THE WEEKLY & MONTHLY CHART: -
On the weekly chart almost all the indicators are positive now and majority of the indicators are in the buy mode, but there is a negative divergence and it is in the overbought zone, so it can correct at times. On the monthly chart it is in overbought/ neutral zone and with huge negative divergence and with MACD in the sell mode. Therefore, all together indicators on the weekly chart seems positive for the up-move , but on the monthly chart it is not yet out of woods therefore further fall may be on the horizon in coming weeks or months.
IT IS BUY ON DECLINE MARKET AS OF NOW;-
It is into deep correction mode for its earlier rise, but it is above all its pullback threshold points, therefore it is buy on decline market now till it holds 50369.40 and then 49654.65 on the closing basis, but short trade can also be tried after a reasonable rise and near critical resistance points with strict stop loss, for intraday corrective gains.
STRENGTH: -
1. Almost all
the important technical indicators are positive now with majorly in the buy
mode.
3. It is
above its medium & long pullback threshold point of 49162.65----49300
(figure may change), sustained close above these points can help it to
extend the up-move.
4. It is above
its most crucial bottoms of 49654.65 & 50369.40, if it sustains above it on the closing basis then the chances of the
up-move will be great.
5. It is above its recent fall pullback
threshold point of 49843 (figure may change), sustained close above this may help it to
extend the up-move.
6. The price action was positive today.
WEAKNESS: -
1. Volatility
and wild swing can be seen in the market quite often, which is not a good sign
for a steady market condition and it can eventually drag it down may be drastically
in the coming days/weeks and months. So be watchful.
2. It is in
the overbought zone on the daily chart, so, it can correct at times.
3. It has
made lower top & bottom on the bar chart and lower bottom on the line chart.
4. It is
below its recent correction threshold point of 51034.67(figure may change).
5. It is below
its most critical points of 50860.20 & 50841.90; please note that it
must stay above these points to keep up the up momentum going in the year 2025,
else it will drift down.
6. It is
below almost all its short-term moving averages now on the daily chart and the
important average range for day is between 51161--50988--50787---50758---50407----50176(figure will change every day), sustained close below this range may witness
an extended down move.
7. It is
below more than half of all its long-term moving averages now and the whole
range is between 51350---49707 (the
range will change every day). Please note that if it sustain above 49707(figure will change every day) on the closing basis then the hope of up-move
will be alive..
TRADING CALL: --
1. Long trade can be tried on decline near
or within the range of 50320---50200 but not below it with a stop loss of 50000 for a possible intraday gain, else avoid. Please note that
long trade in a corrective market could be a risky bet but can be tried at
critical support point with strict stop loss for intraday gain.
2. Short
trade can be tried on the rise near or within the range of 51085—51185 with
a stop loss of 51360 or can sell if it remains below 50742 for
some time, then with a stop loss of 50900. It could be a risky trade but
can be tried for intraday corrective gains.
NOTE: - If it opens up
with huge gap up then wait for it to settle down before initiating long
position, but short trade can be attempted on huge gap up if it is near the
selling point and vice versa . Since, it is showing volatility so any type of
trade should be squared off during the day, if you don’t have reasonable profit
margin in the trade. Day squaring off is strongly suggested in any
case.
Disclaimer:-The view
expressed here are solely of the author and he is not at all responsible in any
way for the outcome of the trade you enter based on the above view.
Kindly note that
make your cost your stop loss in favorable trade and
then trail it as the price move up/down to gain maximum profit and avoid
losses. Use support and resistance levels as entry, exit, target and trailing
stop loss points. DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT STOP LOSS.
Note: Price stated
here are of spot market.
Thanks
Narendra Kumar Surana
Email—suranank@gmail.com
Mobile—8240951127/9831313654.
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